Mog Bonanza Imminent! (07/05/2010)

[Khajit]

This reminds me of how i cant convince several my lsmates that having more than one marble increases thier chances of winning because they won decent lv prizes buying single marble vs when they bought marbles for all their mules and somehow(i dont get why they didn't cover numbers 0~9 either) didn't win even a rank 5 prize.
It might be dumb luck but statistically you're walking away with a decent return in gil on your "investment" if you play it smart and dont repeat the same number twice.


Random is random and interpreting ridiculously good (or bad) luck as some sort of pattern isnt good.

[orson]

The thing is though if you're only interested in items above rank 5 then having 0-9 as the last digits doesn't increase or decrease your odds of winning by anything unless you are copying the last two digits AKA a number set like 54385 and 84585. I don't think anyone was saying don't go for 0-9 on 10 marbles if you do indeed want the rank 5 prize but I bet there's a lot of people who don't give a crap if their mule gets a statue.

Also luck can have patterns because luck is just in the eye of the beholder. A logical person doesn't believe in luck at all so logically associating any statistic or pattern to it is a fallacy but it doesn't stop people from having rituals or patterns that they insist help them win. I don't think you saying random is as random does is going to make people suddenly go, "oh you're right I'll just play by the odds," because honestly how often does this game actually work that way?

[Xanthe]

One reason to make a set of the last two digits (xxx00 - xxx99) is if you have an excessive amount of mules and intend to guarantee yourself Rank 4 prizes. For every 10 mules you can guarantee a Rank 4 prize. For the past two Bonanzas I have used max mules on two accounts (320 marbles) and set the last two digits for 300 of those marbles guaranteeing myself at least 3 Rank 4 prizes which is more than doubling my investment. The final 20 marbles I randomize entirely. This way I make a good return on investment and increase my odds of winning higher rank prizes based on sheer volume, roughly 32/100 (32%) chance of Rank 3, 32/1000 (3.2%) Rank 2, and 32/10000 (0.32%) Rank 5. That's certainly better than my odds with a single marble, and offers a much better return on investment.

[Gtype954]

Glad they're adding new items including PW items.

yea thats cool to see

[byte]

This is what I used:

#include <stdio.h>
#include <time.h>

int main()
{
	srand(time(NULL));
	int i;

	printf("\n");

	for (i = 0; i < 10; i++)
		printf("Marble #%d: %d%d\n", i+1, rand() % 10000, i);

	return 0;
}

[Seraphise]

was anyone else curious as to how Vampiric Claws hit par with Hauteclair? lol

[Baelorn]

was anyone else curious as to how Vampiric Claws hit par with Hauteclair? lol

Well, according to BG Onion Sword is on par with Haut.

[Fievel]

It's trueeeeee

[Francisco]

Nice bump.

The retarded Euro-trash dating format in the title of this thread made me think SE announced another Bonanza for July 5th.

Douche bag.

[urat]

So wait, you'd rather have a 1/10~9/10 shot at free exp over a 100% shot at free exp via miratete's memoirs?

Choosing all ten last digits to be different for your main's marbles does not lower your odds of getting ranks 1~4 prizes, but gaurentees you at least a bit of free exp. And no one in this game will have their exp capped on all jobs after monday.

Also, in fact, having all your numbers end in different sets of numbers actually may INCREASE your odds of winning. I am not 100% sure on this though as it depends on how SE chooses their numbers.

The reasoning is simple, it may be possible SE will not choose a number that qualifies for multiple ranks. IE

If they choose the number 9 for rank 5, they may not choose the number 19 for rank 4 making a player with the marble, say, 56919, between ranks 4 and 5.

DISCLAIMER: I DONT KNOW 100% FOR SURE IF SE DOES THIS. I HAVE NOT SEEN YET A RANK 5 AND 4 PRIZE NUMBER YET ENDING IN SAME NUMBER, AND THE CHANCES OF A RANK 4 AND 3 NUMBER ENDING IN SAME LAST 2 DIGITS IS 1%, AND SO ON.

Therefor we don't actually know if SE would do that to us.

Here's how it works, lets say you choose the numbers 01234, 12345, 23456, 34567, 45678, 56789, 67890, 78901, 89012, and 90123.

The chances of you getting a rank 5 prize is 100%. This of course automatically removes 1/10 of your numbers from your pool of marbles leaving you with 9 potential winning marbles.

HOWEVER if you have 2 numbers that end in the same digit and thats the winning number you could have potentially removed not 1 but TWO of your marbles from your winning pool, dropping your odds of winning a rank 4 prize from 9% to 8%.

Now I myself last year did this on purpose. I didn't really care about the 1/10,000 chance of getting a d ring or whatever, I wanted all 3 statues for my mog house. So I choose 3 numbers for rank 5 and picked 3 different numbers that ended in those, plus a tenth extra one.

It goes further to, lets say you choose 3 numbers that ended in the same last 2 digits.

After rank 5 prize, you have a potential of losing 3/10 of your marbles to that win. You then have the chance of losing those three marbles to rank 4 prize if they weren't lost to rank 5.

That means you have now potentially lost 4/10 of your marbles to rank 5 and 4, leaving you with a .6% chance at rank 3 instead of a .8% chance at rank 3 if all your marbles had ended in different numbers.

In other words, in the extreme case of choosing 3 numbers with the same last 2 digits, you have potentially made yourself lower your odds of winning a rank 3 prize by 25%

Further down the line lets say the other 7 numbers are different. By rank 1 you have now potentially lost 2 marbles to rank 2/3, and a marble + 3 to ranks 4+5, for a total of 6/10 of your marbles used up by rank 1 instead of 4/10, thus you now have a 4/10,000 chance instead of a 6/10,000 chance at rank 1 prize (Of course you also have won a rank 2 prize rank 3 prize, and 3 rank 4s+ a 5 or a rank 4 + 3 5s.... lol)

So by rank 1 you have now cut down your odds of winning by 33%

In other words, choosing all 10 of your last digits to be different not only DOES increase your chances of winning, assuming SE doesn't replicate winning marbles in multiple ranks, but guarantees you some free exp anyways.