Osama bin Laden's Location

[Stromgarde]

The sanctions are an act of war, not a taunt, you don't have to call it an act of war for it to be one,. Historically it is an act of war. We've dug our grave. Change we can believe in for damn sure.

You're misunderstanding what I'm trying to get at. The first shot has to be fired by someone. Under present conditions, I don't expect Iran to. Neither do I expect the US to invade (or send in an assassin, w/e) unless something drastic happens outside the scope of what has already come to pass. The military knows it's not in our best interest, and I seriously doubt Obama will voluntarily start a war on a new front unless his hand is forced.

[Stumblingdrunk]

and I seriously doubt Obama will voluntarily start a war on a new front unless his hand is forced.

Well no, there's always false flag terror for that

[Plow]

I think he is dead too, but I was mainly just commenting on the scenario the OP provides.

I do believe that if war with Iran does happen, our current administration will not pursue the same go-it-alone route of Bush and Iraq. The two are so completely different in so many ways though, there are probably far too many false parallels being drawn between the two states.

My gut tells me Iran wouldn't use a nuke in any situation, but I mean they must realize that them even getting one will set off a chain reaction of events that would ultimately end badly for them. I have a hard time understanding exactly what their rationale is and what they expect to gain from all of this. Are they really so terrified of western ideology penetrating their state and overthrowing their regime/pushing for reforms? I'd like to know more about what Iranian people think about all of this, and not just the youth.

Things are about to get very interesting. Iran absolutely does not want WW3, but they absolutely do want Israel wiped off the face of the map.

If they think they can do it without starting WW3, they will most definitely try.


If the U.S. ends up at war with Iran anytime in the near future, it will be us and Israel vs pretty much the entire middle east. Where China and Russia stand will depend largely on who goes directly after the other first.

If Iran goes for Gaza and gets stopped, and uses that as a reason to go all out offensive, they're going to be in some deep shit, and things are going to get really, really nasty.

If Israel used the Iranian escorts as a reason to nuke them, well, they'd be fucked, so that's probably not going to happen.


I'd like to think the first won't happen either, but I'm afraid if Iran thinks they can get away with it, they'll try.


Interestingly enough, we may be relying on Turkey and the Muslim countries to say no when Iran asks to go, in order to avoid an insanely massive war.

[Stromgarde]

Well no, there's always false flag terror for that

I understand where you're coming from; the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were started under false pretenses and continue to drag on for no better reason than inertia. I just don't think that the Iran situation is similar enough to warrant the same outcome.

[Plow]

And before someone tries to douche this all up, no, I'm not saying Israel wouldn't try if they thought they'd get away with it, I'm saying there's absolutely no question in anyone's mind that they would not get away with it.

[Zoolander]

If the U.S. ends up at war with Iran anytime in the near future, it will be us and Israel vs pretty much the entire middle east. Where China and Russia stand will depend largely on who goes directly after the other first.

I'm kind of wondering, would this really be the case? I know they are unified in their hatred of Israel, but I mean...Sunni muslims aren't exactly BFFs with Iran's theocracy and vice-versa. Would they really be willing to sacrifice all they have worked for in regards to relations with the West, who are some of their biggest customers?

I don't see Russia doing anything other than either backing Iran or staying out of it. China I would say it depends on the context, although I don't think they would burn their bridges with the West either, despite all the animosity.

Edit: Of course, all of this really depends on the circumstances for going to war.

[Meian]

We need a real life Jack Bauer to take care of this shit, dammit.

Much better

Article could be potentially epic but I can only guess the validity of it and if anything would happen...

[Darus Grey]

I'm kind of wondering, would this really be the case? I know they are unified in their hatred of Israel, but I mean...Sunni muslims aren't exactly BFFs with Iran's theocracy and vice-versa. Would they really be willing to sacrifice all they have worked for in regards to relations with the West, who are some of their biggest customers?

I don't see Russia doing anything other than either backing Iran or staying out of it. China I would say it depends on the context, although I don't think they would burn their bridges with the West either, despite all the animosity.

Edit: Of course, all of this really depends on the circumstances for going to war.

Silly man, all them ARABS are the same and all stick together... I thought this was common knowledge?!

[Plow]

I'm kind of wondering, would this really be the case? I know they are unified in their hatred of Israel, but I mean...Sunni muslims aren't exactly BFFs with Iran's theocracy and vice-versa. Would they really be willing to sacrifice all they have worked for in regards to relations with the West, who are some of their biggest customers?

I don't see Russia doing anything other than either backing Iran or staying out of it. China I would say it depends on the context, although I don't think they would burn their bridges with the West either, despite all the animosity.

Edit: Of course, all of this really depends on the circumstances for going to war.

Iran can't try unless they have full Sunni support, and some measure of non-Islamic, basically.


Hopefully what happens is the U.S. and U.N. say "ok, we're going to take over the inspections, Iran you can't send ships, Israel you can't fuck with the ships we inspect," and everyone goes along with it, so the help that's needed gets through, and it doesn't require a war.

[Zoolander]

Silly man, all them ARABS are the same and all stick together... I thought this was common knowledge?!

Oh yea, I forgot about the massive Arab presence in Iran ^_^


@Plow - I mean, the thing that I am worried about though is that it seems more and more likely that Iran won't actually pull the trigger first in all of this. If they keep pursuing their nuclear program at some point Israel, the UN, or the US is going to do something about it - and one of "us" pulling the trigger first is not a good thing in the grand scheme of things (although obviously waiting until a nuke goes off in Tel Aviv or something isn't acceptable either).

We'll see what happens with this latest round of sanctions that should be voted on sometime in the next day or two by the UN. An embargo generally is an act of war, so they need to be careful about that. The potential is clearly there for an epic, East vs West, WWIII style conflict...but I just can't see it getting that out of hand. Economies are just too tied together these days and there is nothing to really gain from an armed conflict.

[Stumblingdrunk]

but I just can't see it getting that out of hand. Economies are just too tied together these days and there is nothing to really gain from an armed conflict.

Nothing to gain for whom?

[Zoolander]

Nothing to gain for whom?

Well, referring mainly to Iran and any of their potential allies. The West just doesn't want a nuclear Iran, so a non-nuclear Iran would be what they would "gain" from a conflict...which isn't really much lol.

I fail to see what Iran would truly gain from going to war with Israel and the west. I am not convinced they really want to fight anyone. I just view their regime as somewhat xenophobic/isolationist/whateveryouwannacallit and having a nuclear weapon is one of the/the best defense plans for any state, especially with the potential (although it obviously remains to be seen) western ally trying to be created right next door in Iraq.

[Kuya]

So umm, is no one going to make any specific references to domestic and foreign policy goals and the specific interests of State actors? Where is the foundation of all this discussion you guys are having? I think i even saw some fool say that Iran wanted Israel wiped off the map without specifying what Ahmedinejad actually said.

This is why i don't like these threads, they ultimately turn into a baseless discussion of what if scenarios about how or when the US goes to war with something because it seems Americans are the some of the few people in the world who do not understand the gravity of war.

[Stumblingdrunk]

baseless discussion of what if scenarios about how or when the US goes to war with something because it seems Americans are the some of the few people in the world who do not understand the gravity of war.

Is this where you answer your own question?

[Kuya]

I see someone already called out the absurd idea of Arab countries rallying in a war behind Iran. In who's delusional imagination is this possible? Only someone who doesn't know shit about the Middle East is this even plausible.

[Darus Grey]

I see someone already called out the absurd idea of Arab countries rallying in a war behind Iran. In who's delusional imagination is this possible? Only someone who doesn't know shit about the Middle East is this even plausible.

4realz.

Israel shit always makes me /facepalm too. The primary reason Iran wants a nuke to begin with is to protect themselves from Israel...not to blow it up, but as a deterrent so they can re-assume their position as the dominant middle-eastern "super" power.

[Zethren]

Don't be very quick to jump to the shia vs shite generalism.
Even though Iran is Shia they have supported Shite groups in the past. One big example is Imad Mugniyah(he was a big commander in Hezbollah before he was killed in 2003) of Hezbollah. And they will continue to do try to rally people under a common cause IF its aganist the west. Even though muslims fight against each other, but they do band togeher very quickly when they feel that 'Islam is being attacked'.

You guys should Read The devil we know by robert baer. It's a very good insite into the current Iran.

[Kuya]

First time i hear of the Shites.

[test123]

jew news, c'mon invade iran would you?

[Zethren]

First time i hear of the Shites.

lol, i mean sunni