Abyssea Discussion

[FailureMidgard]

I'd rather waste 500 cruor and guarantee that time extension or get that 1250 xp instead of being a cheap bastard, considering cruor at this point is next to worthless, unless you're saving up for your 2 million cruor drink. I've gone 5-0 on chests, just to go 35 -> 17 -> 12. Unless the dials sitting at 95 and I didnt fail the last roll from an equally high dial, I'm keying it.


I'm a pretty cheap bastard, NPCing most things I get, but there's a difference between saving 500 cruor, and jewing 18 people out of 1250 xp (which, for the sake of exemplifying things, is basically 2 1/4 merits worth of xp overall).

You may want to reread my post, because you're agreeing with me. "It's not worth saving 500 cruor" = "It's not worth saving a key = "It's not worth NOT USING a key". I didn't say it's not worth wasting.

Here comes the mathalanche. So long useful posts.

Right, the math posts are the ones that aren't useful. Your contribution here is what we've all been spamming f5 to get a chance to read.

[Holyman]

I can't see how you guys have problems opening Blue chests which are hella easy & more predictible than anything else , personally I'd key time extensions only , but everything else just open it regularly , use key if I had 2 failures.

What I'm wondering really about are red chests , even after being chests bitch for too many parties I can't figure how to open them for sure , mostly it's just luck , anyone have any idea about how much pressure is increased/decreased with each "mechanism"?

I only noticed some random numbers even for good nick , 1 notch = 10~11 , 2 notches = 20~22 , 3 notches = 30~33 , I'd really appreciate the info about these , I don't want to open them with "lucky hit" D: .

[*Blaize*]

Is it normal to get a 5 guess chest after 3 kills only? I was soloing T1 pops in LTP and got a "Strong Soothing Light" chest to my surprise.

[Kegsay]

Did you have Scarlet Kismet (luck with Blue chests) abyssite? Were all 3 kills 'feeble azure' or were their 'faint' azure or stronger?

[*Blaize*]

No Kismet, all feeble.

Log pics:
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/9...0728001938.jpg
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/3098/...0728001950.jpg
http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/3...0728002006.jpg
http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/7...0728002024.jpg

I killed 3 more after that without any Chest or Temp Items then warped.

[Plow]

You may want to reread my post, because you're agreeing with me. "It's not worth saving 500 cruor" = "It's not worth saving a key = "It's not worth NOT USING a key". I didn't say it's not worth wasting.



Right, the math posts are the ones that aren't useful. Your contribution here is what we've all been spamming f5 to get a chance to read.

You're completely missing the point.


Nobody, anywhere at all, is suggesting you shouldn't use keys when you have 2 fails.


We're simply pointing out that it's dumb to just key every lock without trying. I'm really not sure why you're arguing against that concept.

[urat]

Math is cool and all and normally Id be into it too but really? Mathing out the success rate of these blue chests is a bit... neh... Maybe we should redirect our attention to more useful things.

Id like it if everyone on their runs kept track of kills and how many they went through before they got first top tier chest. Im hoping the chest rank up rates are actually solid numbers, like 10 kills = T1, 20 = T2, 30 = T3, etc etc etc so we can start getting these chests down to less "ok well uh, I think we got azure light capped? I dunno lol" and more "Ok we just capped out light as of that last kill, lets swap to this light right now"

My ls's next exp run is wednesday and Im on chest duty as usual, so I'll try and keep track of everything I can in notepad.

[FailureMidgard]

That might be realistic if you were guessing completely at random, but literally over 99% of guesses have a better than 50% chance of being correct, and over half of them have a better than 75% chance.

Realistically I'd say I need to key maybe 1 in 5 important chests.

I didn't bother with the math, I'm saying from experience I generally need to key 1 in 5.

You're completely missing the point.


Nobody, anywhere at all, is suggesting you shouldn't use keys when you have 2 fails.


We're simply pointing out that it's dumb to just key every lock without trying. I'm really not sure why you're arguing against that concept.

You are suggesting you only need to use a key on 1 out of 5 blue chests. I said you're wrong. That is all. Your 1/5 though is roughly accurate if you keep guessing as long as you have decent odds even after 2 fails. I didn't really even assume you do that, my only point is you're calling other people wrong when you are in fact wrong. You should need to key just under half of the chests.
But yes, I totally agree you should guess first.

[Plow]

My initial response was to someone saying you have a greater than 50% chance of needing to key, and I'm pretty sure you just did the math to put it at right about 40%...

Anyway this is just dickwaving at this point.


If we're trying to do anything constructive here, it would be trying to figure out just how random they really are. If your math says 40%, and my experience says 20%, then perhaps it's not entirely random.

Or, maybe I've just been lucky.


I've certainly been fucked on restore chest guesses more times than I'd like to admit, though.

[FailureMidgard]

My initial response was to someone saying you have a greater than 50% chance of needing to key, and I'm pretty sure you just did the math to put it at right about 40%...

Anyway this is just dickwaving at this point.


If we're trying to do anything constructive here, it would be trying to figure out just how random they really are. If your math says 40%, and my experience says 20%, then perhaps it's not entirely random.

Or, maybe I've just been lucky.


I've certainly been fucked on restore chest guesses more times than I'd like to admit, though.

The natural response here is you eyeballed it and I'm sure your sample size sucks. And 44% is pretty damn close to 51.

[Laika]

Math is cool and all and normally Id be into it too but really? Mathing out the success rate of these blue chests is a bit... neh... Maybe we should redirect our attention to more useful things.

Id like it if everyone on their runs kept track of kills and how many they went through before they got first top tier chest. Im hoping the chest rank up rates are actually solid numbers, like 10 kills = T1, 20 = T2, 30 = T3, etc etc etc so we can start getting these chests down to less "ok well uh, I think we got azure light capped? I dunno lol" and more "Ok we just capped out light as of that last kill, lets swap to this light right now"

My ls's next exp run is wednesday and Im on chest duty as usual, so I'll try and keep track of everything I can in notepad.

Moon rune discussion gives tiers as 9/17/25/33/40, though azure seems to cap easily at 30 to me.

[urat]

thing is I don't think its azure light = higher tier chests. I think tier of chests is just based on your overall chain you've built up, like exp.

Reason I think this is without getting any ruby light at all I have gotten first red chests of gold and ebon light.

Lights just seem to boost rate, that at least what it seems like.

[FailureMidgard]

thing is I don't think its azure light = higher tier chests. I think tier of chests is just based on your overall chain you've built up, like exp.

Reason I think this is without getting any ruby light at all I have gotten first red chests of gold and ebon light.

Lights just seem to boost rate, that at least what it seems like.

Except there's varying strengths of lights inside. Mild, Strong, etc. You can get any light, but higher tier red chests give stronger lights (presumably does more).

Also, lotsa people have reset chain by switching mob types, and still gotten higher tier chests.

[urat]

Except there's varying strengths of lights inside. Mild, Strong, etc. You can get any light, but higher tier red chests give stronger lights (presumably does more).

Also, lotsa people have reset chain by switching mob types, and still gotten higher tier chests.

Interesting, have we also found your azure/ruby/etc lights stay as well?

Im thinking you could start by capping azure light on like bats or something in tahronghi near the conflux, then every warp to the one near worms with time and cap out amber/ruby light then warp back to bats and resume raping them.

Another thing I've noticed is it almost seems like lights deplete over time. My group capped azure and blue chests were dropping all over nearly every kill. We built up about 200 in time, then stopped really focusing on lights and just focused on killing as fast as possible.

After about an hour we noticed that despit we had gotten another hour's worth of TE chests, they were gradually slowing down. After an hour our blue chests had almost completely stopped and instead we were getting shit tonnes of gold chests and red chests.

After going back to azure light blue chests were dropping again after 20 or so lights.

Anyone else experienced this?

[Salmijr]

I mentioned this a few pages back and was dismissed. It has helped tremendously in my runs to cycle through the lights at intervals, or what you describe tends to happen.

[NynJa]

While I dont have any eyeballed data, at times it does seem that the potency of lights tend to drop...but that could just be other lights balancing 'drop rates' out, or cycled douchebags getting killshots.

[pooter01]

thing is I don't think its azure light = higher tier chests. I think tier of chests is just based on your overall chain you've built up, like exp.

Reason I think this is without getting any ruby light at all I have gotten first red chests of gold and ebon light.

Lights just seem to boost rate, that at least what it seems like.

which contradicts getting top blue chests only 15 mins in to a run getting only azure kills. while killing for nearly an hour getting only pearl will give you many blue chests, but only lowest tier.

[pooter01]

While I dont have any eyeballed data, at times it does seem that the potency of lights tend to drop...but that could just be other lights balancing 'drop rates' out, or cycled douchebags getting killshots.

I have noticed this also, while trying to build to capped exp. we would get 480 a kill, every kill for about five minutes, then it would randomly drop down to 475/kill for a few minutes, then went to 465/kill for a few minutes and jumped back up to 480/kill when we got another gold light(+15 from light?). Made me assume the golden light was slowly wearing off.

We'd long before soft capped the mobs, so difference in level wasn't being seen, and each kill stayed at that number till it dropped again.

[Benevolentone]

I have noticed this also, while trying to build to capped exp. we would get 480 a kill, every kill for about five minutes, then it would randomly drop down to 475/kill for a few minutes, then went to 465/kill for a few minutes and jumped back up to 480/kill when we got another gold light(+15 from light?). Made me assume the golden light was slowly wearing off.

We'd long before soft capped the mobs, so difference in level wasn't being seen, and each kill stayed at that number till it dropped again.

Level variance most likely. I think a good way of testing this would be to wait for maybe 20-30 minutes without killing anything after a long EXP session and kill a few things until you see a blue chest and see how many guesses it is. I doubt lights wear off over time but it would be interesting to know that for sure.

Unless you know some way to cheat statistics, it's always going to be a little over half the time that you end up using a key with this system. It's getting pretty annoying for people who can't figure this out to proclaim superiority over those of us who can.

I don't get why people are getting so worked up over this? I never "proclaimed superiority" I just said that I though chests were easy... I am sorry they are for me. If I can use only 24 keys in 3 hours I am not sure what the math for that would show but I am pretty positive it was much more than half. I am most likely about to go cap my SCH so I will actually count how many chests I need to key once I get to 6 guesses.

Anyway on to more relevant things, has anyone else gotten a Faint Gold light from a Ruby chest only 20 minutes into there party where they had not even gotten a single ruby light? I was under the impression that gold/silver/ebon came from the higher tier chests only and was not a possibility at first. I will post a picture of something interesting that happened last night when I get to it though.

[Spira]

I'm not sure if theres any pattern to the way lights drop per mob family.. I always felt it was kinda randomly distributed just so that people would try the mobs that weren't their favourite.

It'd make sense to me that they put ambers into mobs that people typically wouldnt kill (like wyrms and adamantoise) simply because their TP moves kinda suck or they come with some kind of crappy def bonus.. but that wouldnt imply that specific lights cant come off other mobs killed in certain ways..

The only thing I really see here is SE providing a whole variety of mobs from every basic eco-system as new EXP mobs (except Aquans. Arcana and Undead only have like 1 family represented)
Hopefully when Scars of Abyssea comes around we'll get some of the other fun mobs to play with from these families..

Can't even begin to imagine alliance of SMN vs Djinn lol or like MNK alliance VS Skeletons