Mining Mechanics & Probability

[Shamaya]

I'm not sure if advanced is good for HELM(land) stuff; if not, be nice. I posted this in some other forums but I still don't have a feel for where the good XIV discussion is yet. I haven't seen anything on this yet and I'm sure it's something most miners (& probably botanists) think about.
The question:

Is there a best way to go about choosing where to strike and if so what is it? What set of rules should I follow that, supported by probability, would ensure the best chances of a profitable mining attempt?
This is of course to do with "striking" as opposed to "aiming".


Disclaimer: This is nothing more than theorycraft
If I was at home right now I'd use an in-game screenshot for illustration but as I'm slacking at work atm I'll use this,
http://blogs.mathworks.com/images/pi...le_potw_01.png

I think the most effective way to think about this is in terms of where you aim your strike to land along the radius of the circle. The rest of it doesn't matter. In the diagram above, consider point 5 to point 15 along the horizontal axis.

I don't think the following is correct but perhaps it is a good starting point for discussion.

Theory 1: How the Sphere is Divided
Basically, the radius of the striking sphere is broken down into 5 points and 4 regions. The message you get and the chance of you extracting something depends on where which of these 4 regions (and/or 5 points) you hit.

5 Points: 0% 25 50 75 100%
4 Regions: 1/4, 2/4, 3/4, 4/4

Theory 2: How Success is Determined
Success of extracting something is determined by hitting the right region (or point?) where the item is hidden.

Theory 3: What the Hints Indicate
You feel something promising: The item is hidden within 1/4 (1/2?) range of where you struck. If you struck at 0% and you get this message, the item will be within 0-25%. If you trike at the 25/100 into the radius and get this message, the item will be hidden within 12.5/100 & 37.5/100.**
**(Actually if this were/is true, this would debunk my above proposition about there being 4 regions and would favor the radius being divided into 1/8ths)
You feel nothing promising: The concept, except that the item is not hidden within that particular region.
You're getting farther/closer to the mark: I think this is self explanatory. Tells you if you're getting hotter or colder but still not how far you are.
You've made a dent, but you can't extract it yet: Another self explanatory one. The item is hidden within the 1/4 region (or 1/8th?) where you struck. Strike there again to receive the item.

Basically "you feel something promising" is the only one who's logic really needs to be figured out.



Theory 4: Mining with Probability
I don't always mine in the same pattern, and I'm still not sure what the best way is, but here's an example of what I often do. I start off by spamming the action button when I strike so that I hit at 0%. Since (assuming placement is random) the chances of the item being hidden there are equivalent to it being hid anywhere else, striking there makes the most sense as it takes the least amount of time and sets up just as good a point of reference as hitting anywhere else along the radius. Oftentimes you'll just extract an item immediately.

Summary
Strike @0%
-If: "you've made a dent," hit there again.
-If: "you sense something promising," hit between 25-50%? 12.5-25%?
-If: "you sense nothing promising," then...

Then I strike at 100%. Unfortunately if the item is hidden at about 50%, it's pretty much good game right there, since it seems that the distance between where you strike and where the item is hidden determines how much stamina is drained from the "remaining" bar. If it's at 50% and you strike at 0% and then 100%, this basically drains the "remaining" bar completely (assuming you are not significantly higher level than the tier node at which you're mining?). While this sets you up for auto-loss, you can't be guaranteed to win every time, so no big deal.
The other things that can happen when you hit 100% are "you've made a dent", "you feel something promising", and "you're getting farther/closer the mark."

Summary
Strike @0%
-If: "you've made a dent," hit there again.
-If: "you sense something promising," hit between 25-50%? 12.5-25%?
-If: "you sense nothing promising," then...
Strike @100%
-If: "you've made a dent," hit there again.
-If: "you sense something promising," hit between 50-75%? 75-87.5%?
-If: "you sense nothing promising," then, assuming the theorycraft here is true, we would know that the item is not hidden within 0-25% nor 75-100%. So it'd be somewhere in that 25-75% region. So take your pick of 25-50% or 50-75%. You have a 50/50 chance of striking the right area. Assuming you're of high level in respect to the node, you still have a chance of extracting the item before "remaining" hits 0. If you're low level, you'll probably end up damaging the item if you find it.
-If: "you're getting farther", I'm thinking the item is hidden between 25-50%. If "you're getting closer", the item is between 50-75%. Strike at the respective location.



Anything beyond the above is up to random luck, or your dexterity with hitting the action button at the right time.

I'm sure mining isn't complicated but it helps to know exactly how it works to ensure we're doing it properly and getting more gilz in our pockets. I'm particularly interested in what you guys think about (1)how the sphere is divided (is it divided into 4ths or 8ths?), (2)what is specifically indicated by "you sense something promising" (is it hidden w/in a 25/100 proximity?), and (3)what is your step-by-step striking procedure to ensure probability is on your side?

[Darkhavans]

This is some good information, there's definitely some advantage to be had perfecting your technique with this. I would definitely say it's divided into fourths, I imagine if it was 8ths you'd have to be a lot more precise than you can get away with now.

I've generally been striking directly in the middle and then going from there. If I get nothing promising, I strike close to the outside, and then close to the inside. Almost always I'll find the sweet spot on the 1st or 2nd strike.

It's definitely worth it to do some theorycrafting over this, my technique works most of the time, but there could certainly be room for improvement, maybe even eventually achieving a near 100% success rate.

[Cooleko]

My technique which works really well is 2/3 then 1/3, almost always one of them is a hit for the follow up. Statistics to back it up... nada, I just like playing.

[Azurewrath]

I'm pretty sure it's around 8 different spots.

Something promising means you're not quite on it. so you hit more one way, if it says youre getting further, hit the other way, thatll be it. 100% of the time.

[miokomioko]

All gathering mini-games have the exact same mechanics and same messages just worded differently with different shaped gauges. Just translate the same ideas from Fishing/Botany to fill in any blanks.

[Sup3rB4d]

I Start at 50% for the reason that you mentioned above. I think 'remainder' may be affected by how far away your strike is from the item location, but more importantly I think the level of the item also has a say in how much is taken away.This is my Technique and it is fairly successful in low and same level nodes.

50%
-If: "you've made a dent," hit there again.
-If: "you sense something promising," hit 60%
-If: "you sense nothing promising," then... 80%

60% (less common)
-If: "you've made a dent," hit there again.
-If: "you're getting further away" hit 40%
    -If: "you are getting closer" hit 30%
-If: "you're getting closer" hit 70%

80% (more common)
-If: "you've made a dent," hit there again.
-If: "you're getting further away" hit 20%
    -If: "you are getting closer" hit 0%
-If: "you are getting closer" 100%

[Deadgye]

I just go about halfway between middle circle and full. If that doesn't work then I go on the circle. That tells me that it's either full circle, where I'm at now, or smaller. If it's smaller I go with half middle circle. And last but not least is close-to-zero circle. Usually gets me my item.

I'll sometimes change stuff up slightly depending on how much stamina is used up- since it seems the farther away you go (the more you mess up) the more stamina it takes. (Like sometimes I'll skip half middle circle and just go straight to close-to-zero circle.)

[miokomioko]

Remainder will almost always drop a lot if you go in the wrong direction by a significant amount. And yes, the more difficult/rare the find/catch/etc. the more the remainder will drop per attempt at it. Grade increase also has an overall increase in Remainder drainage. It makes gathering at Grades way past you almost impossible outside the occasional common crap.

[Coren]

For botany, I hit 50% to start with (puts a max on how much remainder you can lose on your first guess). If something is promising, hit a little above or below as necessary (only 5% above or below). If there is nothing promising in the middle, aim approximately 1/3 from the top or bottom. If you go the wrong way, only being 15% farther away from your initial strike limits the amount of remainder lost if it is the other direction (vs going all the way to the extreme), yet still will give you useful information if you go in the correct direction. From there, if you get "you are getting closer", you are not within the range to get the item and should try slightly farther away (about another 15%). If you are within range, you'll either get the item, or you'll be told "you are close to something but cannot make hte final cut"; I hit the exact same place and get it pretty much 100% of the time. This nets an item the majority of the time within the 3-4 hit average on each try.

Additionally, to those that propose starting right at 0%: while the correct spot is randomized, your initial strike will detect the spot within a certain % on either side of your strike. Therefore, if you select 50%, you will get a message that "you sense something promising" if the correct spot is between 38 and 62% (letting you detect 24% total) vs only 0 to 12%. This obviously also holds true for "you are close but can't make the final cut" messages.

From what I've been able to tell, you have to be within 7 or 8% or so of the target (roughly, depending on the difficulty) to get the "can't make final cut" message where you can then take another swing and actually get the item, and within 2-4% to just get the item on the first shot. If you feel something promising, I think you are within roughly 12%. If you feel nothing, try a different 1/3.

[miokomioko]

That is usually the way to do it. You're statistically more likely to hit an area if you aim in the middle first. If it's no good, vary to one of the sides and you have a 50% chance of heading right towards it. Hot & Cold it from then on out.

I'm really interested in people documenting any differences between the initial depth/notch/(whatever mining uses) setting. For now, I'm convinced that Mining and Botany's setting affects item types. (e.g. If you are going for logs, aim low, if you're going for feathers aim high) and Fishing's depth affects item rarity. I feel like this part is going to be the part that remains ambiguous for a long time.

[jinkazama]

is there a benefit to changing the exposed ore or notch in botany. ive tried all different combinations but I havent noticed a difference really.

[miokomioko]

Some people (maybe those who do it more?) reported vague changes in things. A lot of people don't see a difference. It was placed in to give a little control to gathering so you could focus on either item types or item rarity while mining/fishing/logging. Read my post

There's a number of theories on what it does.

1) Nothing
2) Influences item types (low= logs VS mid = branches VS high = feathers and fruit) < I think Mining and Botany fit here
3) Influences item rarity (lots of crayfish bites in the shallows VS very few box turtles bites in the deep) < I think Fishing fits here
4) Influences sweet spots to be in a general area of the gauge.

[Coren]

I certainly would believe 2/3. I do get a lot more logs/branches aiming for the lowest 1-3 notches vs aiming high. However aiming high usually will net you at least *something* if your goal is skillups only.

[Jamison]

I have no statistics to back this up, just observations.

I don't feel like the circle is split into specific and fixed zones (unless there are way more than 8), there are too many variations for when a point goes from "promising" to "need to strike again same spot again". I believe that the location is first picked, perhaps something like on a scale from 1-100. Then the zones spread outward on both directions, perhaps around 10-15 points for the true success zone, then 15 points in either direction for "promising".

I also wonder why sometimes an item can be extracted immediately, and sometimes takes two successful zone hits, and I'm pretty sure I once had it take 3 successful hits. One possibility is that the game assigns a value (lets call it HP for the sake of argument) and you have to successfully deplete all the HP for an overall success. It's possible that the closer you are to the exact mark gives you better numbers towards this success, while being slightly off still gives the message but doesn't extract the rock. I come very close to hitting the exact same spot when getting the "needs another hit" message... with good success, so I'm fairly confident that there is some cumulative value in striking in that zone. This also sets up a nice high-end mechanic, where really rare ores can have a higher "HP", and higher level pickaxes can do more "damage".

I always aim for the middle circle first. If that is a "nothing promising" I always go halfway towards the center. I might be crazy, but it really seems like 80% of the time the success zone is towards the center of the circle. Seriously, out of every 10 attempts or so (where the middle circle isn't a hit) 8-9 of them are closer to the center. I'm curious if others have observed the same thing, because there might be something I'm doing that helps lean it this way. I always start with the lowest setting on the exposed ore meter, or heck.. maybe it has something to do with guardian... point is, who knows? It DEFINITELY is not evenly distributed for me. (I say this as rank 16, btw).

I don't know how better to explain this, so in this example 0 is the dead center, 50 is the middle ring, 100 is the outside ring.

So to get more in the technical, if my first hit in the middle (50) is "nothing promising", my second hit is about 30. I pick this because my experiences tell me this is far enough away from 50 that is still might be a success, without the high risk of overshooting it. Meaning, if 30 is "promising", the chances of it being between 30-50 are pretty slim. This sets up a pretty good set of conditions. If 30 is promising, I aim next for about 20 or slightly less (that's, imo, about one zone over). If 30 is simply "you are moving in the correct direction" I aim for around 10, because that gives me the most coverage of what is left. If 30 is moving in the wrong direction, I aim for 70-80, and make a judgement call if I have another strike.

Assuming I get 4 strikes, and unless I mis-time one of my strikes, I estimate this has about a 90-95% success rate. I'm not saying that to be cocky... I'm going to start tracking my actual success rate and will edit/repost with real-world numbers.

[Sendordm]

Im level 12 at the moment working on Grade II nodes, and I always try to start at 25% (half of the first circle). So far it feels like 3/4 of my successes have been within that first 50% circle, but no hard data to support this as of yet.

Question: Does anyone have an idea as to how much the +gathering points on gear affects your results? I know it's important to upgrade your pickaxe at least, but what about items like Cotton Doublet Vest? Wondering if I should take a day or so off from going out into the field to just focus on getting every +gathering item I can made.

Edit: Guess same question applies to gloves and what not with +output stat.

[Sup3rB4d]

The notch location in harvesting has an OBVIOUS affect on the items you receive but mining still feels somewhat random.

[Deadgye]

The notch location in harvesting has an OBVIOUS affect on the items you receive but mining still feels somewhat random.

Both feel completely random to me.

[Darkhavans]

Both feel completely random to me.

Yeah, I haven't noticed any trends in where you hit in Botany, Mining, or Fishing regarding received items whatsoever.

[miokomioko]

Get a fishing rod and go to a Grade way past your rank. You'll get some occasional crayfish and other shitty bites at the shallowest depths, and at a deep depth, you'll get no bites at all, and if you do, it'll be a failed hook because what finally bit was extremely difficult for you to hook/reel in.

[PunkyThaTaru]

@Darkhavans&Deadgye I was logging for quite some time, aiming for the highest elevation and I was purely getting fruits and moth pupas