Aspir and Aspir II

[CDF]

Is it ok if I put this here?

- Dark magic skill 423 (including merits & equipment)
- No other Aspir enhancements on equipment or from anything else (e.g., Dark Staff)
- Firesday on worms in the past
- Unresisted values only

Aspir (n = 50)
Min: 88
Max: 169
Mean: 131.98

Aspir II (n = 50)
Min: 130
Max: 248
Mean: 194.54

Given the above conditions, previously it appeared the ranges of Aspir and Aspir II were...

At 300 skill
Aspir: 60-120
Aspir II: 90-180

At 400 skill
Aspir: 80-160
Aspir II: 120-240

It seems Aspir's max increases 40 points per 100 skill (and the min seems to be 1/2 the max), so given 423 skill, one might expect an approximate range of 84-169. Aspir II's max seems to be 1.5x that for Aspir (min still appears to be 1/2 Aspir II's max), so at 423 skill one might expect an approximate range of 127-253

[Byrthnoth]

So 100 skill probably increased Aspir's max by 40. If you regress that back to 0, you go through 0/0. It would be interesting to see if someone with 0 Dark Magic Skill can Aspir any MP. All the skill up crap we have these days would make it hard to tell for sure though

Aspir: .2*Skill : .4*Skill
Aspir II: .3*Skill : .6*Skill

[Foldypaws]

Er, how can you tell that 88 isn't just a resisted 169 or whatever?

[Yugl]

If I had to guess: Frequency.

[Byrthnoth]

With N=50 spanning a range of 90, he couldn't tell based off frequency I'd think. I think he has shown it to be 50% max in the past though. It does make the lower bound somewhat arbitrary this time around though.

I don't care. I believe it anyway~!

[Gwynplaine]

Does anyone remember like, a year or more ago, there was this small thread on pinning down magic accuracy? It seemed promising, something about using enspells on a target like crabs. But then like it never got re-bumped and I have no clue where it went. I don't think anyone has pinned down macc more have they?

[CDF]

I've never explored the nature of resists for Drain and Aspir. Suppose I had n = 1000 and the distribution of Aspirs looked like a step function. Then this would be a sign that the distribution of resisted values overlaps the distribution of unresisted values since the evidence so far doesn't contradict the idea that the distribution of unresisted values of any of Aspir, Aspir II and Drain is uniform.

A resisted value could lurk in the data but given 95% magic accuracy rate all I can say is that that resisted values are relatively infrequent and they are "obvious" enough when they are far apart from the rest of the data so that they can be ignored. It is more relying on infrequency of resists that I argue the min could be 1/2 the max.

Also, I suspect the dependence of the max of Aspir or Aspir II on dark magic skill is piecewise linear so any apparent trends between 300-423 are difficult to extrapolate below 300. I was just mainly interested to see dark skill affects potency beyond 400 (so "small" samples are sufficient for this goal, assuming they didn't ninja-change anything since the last time the explicitly announced a change).