NFL Week 7: Most overrated/underrated

[Tyche]

In lieu of the SI article detailing player underrated/overrated choices, I'll present some.

Most overrated player: Darrelle Revis (not even the best corner on his team)
Most underrated player: Calvin Johnson (Dude made Shaun Hill look great, if I were building a non-fantasy team, he'd be my #1 WR)

Most overrated team: Atlanta Falcons (One notable win all season)
Most underrated team: Seattle Seahawks (ranking in the twenties. Won against the Chargers and @Chicago).



SUN, OCT 24

Cincinnati at Atlanta (-3.5) - Well, even though I picked Atlanta has my most overrated team, they've held up well at home. They're playing a Cinci team who've had quite the disappointing season thus far, and coming off a devastating loss to Tampa Bay at home. Luckily for Cinci, they're very healthy with no major injuries to report. With how well Ryan plays at home, coupled with the fact that Cinci's D isn't what it was last year, I like Atlanta in this game to cover.

Washington at Chicago (-3) - Washington has a pretty atrocious pass defense. I think they're either the worst, or second worst to only Houston. Now, they're going to face Jay Cutler and a Mike Martz offense that loves to throw the ball and throw it a lot. Since the great start, Chicago has been taking some heat. I like Chicago to get back on track after Washington has put together a few nice games as of late.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3) - I'm really riding this St. Louis train. Bradford has looked, at the very least, good enough to open up some things for Jackson, who's put together a couple of decent games, which doesn't happen too often early in the season. He's thrown a great deep ball, and despite looking pretty banged up at the beginning of the year, the WR group has fared pretty damn well. Tampa also has a terrible rushing defense. I like SJAX to bowl bitches over en route to a St. Louis victory.

San Francisco at Carolina (+3) - I have great news...San Francisco is 1-0 when I pick them to lose. So, with that said, Carolina sees the return of the Matt Moore era. I don't know if that's great news or not, but it should make things a bit easier for Steve Smith owners to stomach. It's not going to turn them around, by any stretch, but maybe they can catch a little lightning in a bottle and pull out a win at home. Carolina is one of only 2 home underdogs this week.

Buffalo at Baltimore (-13) - There's really no way to analyze this game. I think Baltimore is the best team in the NFL, and I think Buffalo is the worst team in the NFL. No way to sugarcoat this, this is going to be a beatdown. Fitzpatrick is going to spend a lot of time on his ass in this game, and Baltimore is going to roll, and roll hard. But not too hard, we need no fines from the NFL.

Philadelphia at Tennessee (-3) - These were two teams I was thinking about placing in my "most overrated" list. Tennessee has a pretty damn average pass defense, and I don't think their corners are anything to write home about. This could be another confidence building game for Kolb, as he should have a pretty damn decent day in the air. Good news for Tennessee is that they have Young back (it seems), and CJ is always something nice to have. Still, I think Kolb exposes the Tennessee secondary and pulls out a win.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9) - Noone should be forced to watch the atrocity that is the Jacksonville Jags. Garrard is terrible, Edwards looked lost, and I think both are hurt. MJD, once exciting to watch, is actually losing some carries, so that's not even worth it anymore. KC is going in the opposite direction. They look good on defense, they have some stars on offense, they just need a good QB and that would be a formidable team. I don't know who starts at QB for JAX, but it's going to be ugly any way it falls. KC wins huge.

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3) - Miami is 0-2 when I pick them to win at home. They're one of two home dogs this week. Steelers are 5-11 as road favorites under Tomlin. Pitt's next four games are against Miami, Saints, Bengals, and Patriots (looking ahead much?). Brutal schedule for Pitt. With that said, Pitt has the better QB, secondary, D-line, WRs, and coaches. Miami has a better...what? Offensive line? That's about it. This is pretty much the national early game, as most of the country sees it. Miami is 0-2 in such games. Pitt wins. Miami +3.

Cleveland at New Orleans (-13) - Cleveland has been really really competitive this year. Colt McCoy looked pretty damn serviceable in his first start against the Steelers with almost 300 yards. New Orleans is 2-8 when laying 10 or more points. Do I think Cleveland is going to pull one hellacious upset? No, but I think they keep it close. Saints to win, Cleveland +13.

Arizona at Seattle (-6) - My worst nightmare, MY Max Hall who I rode to a win last week against Seattle, who I've been riding all season. Who do I take? The -soon-to-be- outstanding and great Max Hall, or my strange love for the Seahawks? Hmm, Seattle is 30th in the league against the pass, and 2nd in the league against the run. This leads me to believe that Max Hall is going to go all beast mode up in Seattle. Arizona to pull a stunner, as Max Hall goes for 320 yards and two TDs.

New England at San Diego (-3) - Game of the week in my opinion. You have a very very desperate SD team, who seems to always turn things around and right the ship against a New England team that's playing like on of the leagues best teams. I would pick SD in a hot minute if they were healthy, however, their entire receiving core is on the injury report. Gates, Floyd, Naanee...I guess they always have Buster Douglas Davis to lean on. It looks promising for some of them, and the Gates injury doesn't seem as serious as anticipated. If they can get Floyd and Gates on the field, they should have a hell of a day against the NE secondary. If not, NE wins. I'll assume SD finds a way to pass the ball. SD wins.

Oakland at Denver (-8) - After beating the Jets in rushing offense, passing offense, turnover margin, and playing at home, they became one of only 2% of teams who've lost with that string of occurrences. I think Denver is really damn good, and they pass the ball extremely well. You'd think that may be kep in check since Oakland ranks 8th in pass defense. I think that may be a lot of just teams being able to run it strait down Oakland's gullet with little trouble. After the devastating loss to the Jets, OIrton takes his frustrations out on Oakland and rides away with a huge win.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5) - This is a tough game for me to pick. Favre has stepped it up big-time in prime-time when facing the packers. He obliterated the them last season...twice. As I explained in the week 6 thread, I think this is a battle of o-line play. If the Green Bay o-line allows Rodgers to get jacked up as much as he did against Miami, it could be a long day. If Clay Matthews can play like Clay Matthews, it could be a long day for Favre. I like this game to be a pretty damn good shootout, and I trust Rodgers arm to holdup more than Favre's in such a situation. Green Bay to win and cover.

MON, OCT 25

NY Giants at Dallas (-3) - The Giants are another team that many experts believe is a top 10 contender. Dallas, well, they're going to other way. If the Giants defense plays like they against Cutler, this may end up being the most entertaining game of the week. I have to believe that Dallas is going to come out sharp and focused though. They have to. Desperation can carry you a long way, and I think it carries Dallas to a win this week. Dallas -3.

[archibaldcrane]

1-4 Dallas, with their shitty O-Line, is favored against the 4-2 Giants who have been beasting on weak O-Lines?

Veerrrrry interesting.

[Valisk]

I'm surprised Dallas wasn't the most overrated team.

Last Week: 5-9
Season: 47-43

Cincinnati at Atlanta
Washington at Chicago
St. Louis at Tampa Bay
San Francisco at Carolina
Buffalo at Baltimore
Philadelphia at Tennessee
Jacksonville at Kansas City
Pittsburgh at Miami
Cleveland at New Orleans
Arizona at Seattle
New England at San Diego
Oakland at Denver
Minnesota at Green Bay
NY Giants at Dallas

[Headspace]

Atlanta doesn't have Dunta, so i'm a little optimistic.

[Headspace]

I'm surprised Dallas wasn't the most overrated team.

Dallas isn't rated high, they've got a shit record and are shitty.

[Valisk]

Dallas isn't rated high, they've got a shit record and are shitty.

Makes sense. I was looking at it from a different point of view in terms of expectations.

[Naafeih]

Are we going by Vegas? Cause Chargers 2.5 at home over the Patriots is really overrated.

How long til they realize SD is not good this year?

[Moss]

Most overrated player: Darrelle Revis (not even the best corner on his team)
Most overrated team: Atlanta Falcons (One notable win all season)

Revis is injured so I disagree. He might want to stop talking shit though.

As for the Falcons, they are what I thought they were. The defense especially looked completely different than in past years until the Philly game. Pitt and Philly are two good teams so I still have hope we can put it all together. I think based on talent alone we can be a great team, but as far as execution and taking the next step we still have a ways to go.

Atlanta doesn't have Dunta, so i'm a little optimistic.

You should be, we have a tendency to let things roll up on us. If you can go up a TD early you have a good chance. It will come down to which Falcons defense shows up, the one that gets burned by TOcho or the one that picks off the most passes in the league and a has a strong d-line.

[Olo401]

Cincinnati at Atlanta
Washington at Chicago
St. Louis at Tampa Bay
San Francisco at Carolina - Fuckin' Niners man.. I ditched them last week, and they burned my pick yet again.
Buffalo at Baltimore
Philadelphia at Tennessee
Jacksonville at Kansas City
Pittsburgh at Miami
Cleveland at New Orleans
Arizona at Seattle
New England at San Diego
Oakland at Denver
Minnesota at Green Bay
NY Giants at Dallas

[Valisk]

Are we going by Vegas? Cause Chargers 2.5 at home over the Patriots is really overrated.

How long til they realize SD is not good this year?

I don't know what it is but things just haven't been falling the Chargers' way this year. They are #1 in offense and defense but are 2-4. Mind boggling.

[Serif]

Niggas be hating on TN, I do not like

Witherspoon and Babin will show the Eagles what they missed out on and Britt will be teabagging Samuel on the reg.

[Chun Liroy]

Are we going by Vegas? Cause Chargers 2.5 at home over the Patriots is really overrated.

How long til they realize SD is not good this year?

How can you be overrated at #1 offense and defense. I know wins etc., and maybe wins should dictate the line, but in this case, I don't think they're that overrated--blame their "special" teams. I don't recall anyone saying they were the best etc. (like with the Cowboys).

[Chun Liroy]

Also, Tyche stop picking Dallas dammit. I'm pretty sure every week you picked them, they lost and every week you didn't, they won.

Edit: In ditto what archie said. Giants just match up well against us, plain and simple. Their Dline has been dominant the past few games, to go with our fail Oline. I'd say, compared to the vikings, their Dline is a lil bit weaker, but their secondary is a lot better than the vikings. Romo didn't get anything downfield on the vikings so take that for what it's worth. Oh, and we can't cover their WRs for shit.

[Byrd]

Arizona at Seattle (-6) - My worst nightmare, MY Max Hall who I rode to a win last week against Seattle, who I've been riding all season. Who do I take? The -soon-to-be- outstanding and great Max Hall, or my strange love for the Seahawks? Hmm, Seattle is 30th in the league against the pass, and 2nd in the league against the run. This leads me to believe that Max Hall is going to go all beast mode up in Seattle. Arizona to pull a stunner, as Max Hall goes for 320 yards and two TDs.

I thought you were crazy for picking the Seahawks last week, but you were right. I tend to think of the Seahawks as a better-than-average team at home, and a bottom 5 NFL team on the road (although the Bears might argue the latter). I think the normally loud Qwest Field (which leads the NFL in opponents' False Starts since it opened in 2002) will be particularly harsh on the rookie QB this week in the battle for the division lead. Phillip Rivers did very well against the Seahawks in a week 3 loss, but Max Hall is no Phillip Rivers (yet?). I think Seattle wins this one, by 10 points or more, but Arizona wins the rematch in 3 weeks in Glendale.

[Moss]

I don't know what it is but things just haven't been falling the Chargers' way this year. They are #1 in offense and defense but are 2-4. Mind boggling.

You make it sound like it isn't their fault, lol.

[Tyche]

I'm not buying the "Revis is injured, so now he sucks" bullshit. He ran toe-to-toe with Denver all day, and still was getting his shit thrown on.

[Chun Liroy]

If you're injured, you're not helping your team, sit out. If you're playing, you're telling me that your 100%.

[Tyche]

I don't know what it is but things just haven't been falling the Chargers' way this year. They are #1 in offense and defense but are 2-4. Mind boggling.

They turn it over and their ST sucks ass?

[Moss]

I'm not buying the "Revis is injured, so now he sucks" bullshit. He ran toe-to-toe with Denver all day, and still was getting his shit thrown on.

I think it is a combination of him being rusty/out of shape and nagging injuries. As a player from now and into the future I think he is still a monster, but yeah as of this moment you could call him overrated.

[Tyche]

I think it's simply the fact that he's not as good as last season. Is it really hard to believe that he can't repeat this ridiculous performance? Did Rice repeat his 22 catch season? Did /anyone/ repeat their 2000 yard season?