The Unemployment Rate is 22.9%

**test123** · 2012-12-10 17:16

There are a number of ongoing problems with the released numbers. For example, the concurrent-seasonal factor adjustments are unstable. The birth-death model adds non-existent jobs each month that are then taken out in the annual downward benchmark revisions. Williams calculates that the job overstatement through November averages 45,000 monthly. In other words, employment gains during 2012 have been overstated by about 500,000 jobs. Another problem is that each month’s jobs number is boosted by downside revision of the previous month’s jobs number. Williams reports that the 146,000 new jobs reported for November “was after a significant downside revision to October’s reporting. Net of prior-period revisions, November’s seasonally-adjusted monthly gain was 97,000.”

The U.6 rate does not include long-term discouraged workers, those who have been discouraged for more than one year. John Williams estimates this rate and reports the actual rate of unemployment (known as SGS) in November to be 22.9%.

The U.S. government simply lowers the unemployment rate by not counting all of the unemployed. We owe this innovation to the Clinton administration. In 1994 the Clinton administration redefined “discouraged workers” and limited this group to those who are discouraged for less than one year. Those discouraged for more than one year are no longer considered to be in the labor force and ceased to be counted as unemployed.

http://lewrockwell.com/roberts/roberts379.html

**Correction** · 2012-12-10 17:21

Yes let's just put the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate in a blender, shit out a number, then call it a shadow government statistic, that's how you get to the truth.

If the U.S. government will mislead the public about unemployment, it will also mislead about Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, China, and 9/11. The government fits its story to its agenda.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

**Ksandra** · 2012-12-10 17:26

Originally Posted by test123

John Williams estimates

Go back to composing music, John Williams. You are drunk.

**Xno Kappa** · 2012-12-10 17:30

The government is lying. I seent it!

**Mazmaz** · 2012-12-10 17:36

Originally Posted by Ksandra

Go back to composing music, John Williams. You are drunk.

lmao

**Talint** · 2012-12-10 17:46

Originally Posted by Ksandra

Go back to composing music, John Williams. You are drunk.

Well played, Ksandra. Well played.

**archibaldcrane** · 2012-12-10 17:52

Man, both my retired parents aren't getting counted in the unemployment statistic, this is bullshit. Neither is my 6 year old niece!

**quannum** · 2012-12-10 17:55

Originally Posted by test123

http://lewrockwell.com/roberts/roberts379.html

this might as well be a post from dailypaul.com

**ronin sparthos** · 2012-12-10 17:59

How much nanothermite did it take to down the WTC again?

**Jeryhn** · 2012-12-10 18:02

Originally Posted by Ksandra

Go back to composing music, John Williams. You are drunk.

Gold.

**Abandon** · 2012-12-10 18:04

well, this certainly was stupid

**Waraji** · 2012-12-10 18:43

This is an outrage! I preferred better when the American public was being lied to, and we all said Thank You, and carried on. I blame the Bush administration.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p8Qu1BxPLJ...s320/Phony.png

**Icywave** · 2012-12-10 20:15

The problem of determining who is in labor force or not,
as well as setting up an arbitrary cut-off period for the long-term discouraged workers for their exclusion in Unemployment numbers,
is that we have no way to tell what the person is really thinking (re-enter, take a break, actively looking, switch to self-employment)
So almost at the end, any arbitraty number has some arguments behind to support it.

Also U6 has been in existence for a long time, it is just difficult for government or any agencies to switch a measurement all of sudden,
especially when the newer matrix could be less politically popular albeit it may be more accurate.

If it is consistent then it is not phony, after all, these are estimations,
but i do agree U6 is marginally better and we really should update this specific calculation.

**Andalusian girls** · 2012-12-10 23:10

the unemployment is and has always been bullshit, off a percentage point or two by reducing the number of people in the labor force as above bro pointed out, but this is ridiculous

**BaneTheBrawler** · 2012-12-11 05:54

Originally Posted by Ksandra

Go back to composing music, John Williams. You are drunk.

i thought of him, too, when i saw that name. beautiful music... shitty economics/statistics.

**GoggleHead** · 2012-12-11 09:27

Originally Posted by BaneTheBrawler

i thought of him, too, when i saw that name. beautiful music... shitty economics/statistics.

It says "Statistician John Williams", so while it's the same name I don't think it's the composer.

**Talint** · 2012-12-11 09:33

Originally Posted by GoggleHead

It says "Statistician John Williams", so while it's the same name I don't think it's the composer.

**Abandon** · 2012-12-11 10:42

Originally Posted by GoggleHead

It says "Statistician John Williams", so while it's the same name I don't think it's the composer.

this made my day

**kuronosan** · 2012-12-11 12:11

Originally Posted by GoggleHead

It says "Statistician John Williams", so while it's the same name I don't think it's the composer.

I guess the goggles really do nothing.

**kuronosan** · 2012-12-11 12:11

Originally Posted by GoggleHead

It says "Statistician John Williams", so while it's the same name I don't think it's the composer.

I guess the goggles really do nothing.

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