Dem frogs.

[Ashmada]

The other day I was uncharacteristically sober and, inevitably, boredom set in; so I glanced towards the neighbourly southern marshlands, only to notice the frogs are poised to choose a new frog king.
The dancing of the would-be kings fascinated me and I decided to share my amusement with them gartered peoples that dwelleth on the other side of the pond.

So, without further ado, I present to you girls and boys and trannies and eunuchs and oh so numerous indistinguishable blobs of flesh, the would-be kings:
(disclaimer: summaries below contain opinions, extremely flattering pictures and obvious biases, deal with it)

1.

http://communistesclichy92.elunet.fr...rkoleon300.jpg
Sarkoleon: incumbent frogking vying for his own succession.

Party: UMP - used to mean "union for presidential majority" now retconned "union for a popular movement".
Location in the hemisphere: right-wing.
Slogan: The strong France.
Legacy of previous reign:
- Dem rich bastards got richer, dem poor bastards got poorer.
- Dem roms got expelled back to Romland or whatevar shithole they from, lolz!
- Dem journalists learned that some questions result in suddenly having a lot more free time.*


*couldn't find an english source... long story short: Sarkozy had the french newscaster (and reknowned writer) PPDA fired over a question he didn't like.
It's not the first time he abused his power to stifle the freedom of the press, but ink was spilled in great quantities that time due to the high-profile of this specific target.

Plans for the next reign:
- MOAR of teh same.
- Protectionism.
- Try to take over as supreme autarch.
- Try to invite mysterious boyfriend "Joseph R. from Rome" in the chambers of government.

GoT equivalent: Joffrey Lannister - arrogant, authoritarian self-absorbed little shit.


2.

http://24heuresactu.com/wp-content/u...as-600x360.jpg
Stay Puft Hollande: the mellow way.

Party: PS - socialist party.
Location in the hemisphere: left-wing.
Slogan: Change is now.

Plans for reign:
- MOAR subsidized healthcare.
- MOAR social housing.
- MOAR windmills.
- MOAR civil rights: marriage for all, repeal of some internet-restricting laws, signing the european charter on regional languages,...
- Pulling out of Afghanistan.
- Recognition of a Palestinian sovereign state.
- Some wishful thinking about forcing China to play fair monetarily (yeah, that'll happen).
- Reform of the common agricultural policy (good luck getting Cameron on board).
- Some form of protectionism as well.
- Making them rich bastards poorer and them poor bastards richer.

GoT equivalent: Robb Stark - well-intentioned but some of his plans are too ambitious for his own sake.


3.

http://24heuresactu.com/wp-content/u.../02/bayrou.jpg
Deft-hand Bayrou: never gonna give you up.

Party: MoDem - Democratic movement.
Location in the hemisphere: firmly on the fence.
Slogan: A united country meets no resistance.

Plans for reign:
- MOAR EU.
- Stronger parliament, weaker executive power (the french president holds even more power than the US president currently).
- Some reform of the education system, he hasn't detailled what concrete measures he means by that.
- MOAR civil rights: marriage for all, repeal of some internet-restricting laws, signing the european charter on regional languages,...
- A lot of fence-sitting on pretty much anything else.

GoT equivalent: Sansa Stark - not malevolent but too naïve, ambitious and vapid to see the Lannisters for what they are, he slept with Joffrey/Sarkoleon and eventually got burned but finds it hard to get out of this unholy union in the public's eyes.


4.

http://blogs.mediapart.fr/files/u748...en-300x290.jpg
Marine LePen: half-bulldog and half-bulldog, she's her own best and only friend.

Party: FN - National front.
Location in the hemisphere: far-right.
Slogan: The voice of people, the spirit of France.

Pro: appears more moderate than her father was.
Con: appears more moderate than her father was.

Plans for reign:
- Deporting darkies.
- MOAR racial profiling.
- Less EU, fuck €.
- Bigger military budget.
- Need I go on? She and her party are scum, that's all there is to it.

GoT equivalent: dunno. Who's the biggest racist?


5.

http://referentiel.nouvelobs.com/wsf...1324721642.jpg
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Dio wannabe.

Party: FG - Left Front.
Location in the hemisphere: far-left.
Slogan: Seize power.

Plans for reign:
- Really making them rich bastards poorer and them poor bastards richer.
- Fuck banks, fuck them in butts!
- Windmills.
- Repeal of internet-restricting laws.
- Equal pay & rights for women.
- MOAR power to assembly, exit senate, less power to president/executive.
- Return to a proportional system of representation (unsurprising given his situation).
- Less EU, fuck €.

GoT equivalent: Theon Greyjoy - his heart might be in the right place, but he's torn between conflicting interests; in this case the sometimes incompatible views of the different parties comprising his alliance.
He's also got a creepy side that sometimes shows.


6.

http://media.rtl.fr/online/image/201...avril-2012.jpg
Eva Joly: the iceberg is 100 too and it's not done causing havoc in the best laid plans of man and man.

Hailing from frigid Norway, Eva Joly easily coerced the cheese-eating surrender monkeys into letting her run for president.

Party: EELV - Europe Ecoly the Greens.
Location in the hemisphere: self-proclaimed left-wing but like all green parties, they have a strange way of showing it.
Slogan: The just vote.

Plans for reign:
- Giving trees the right to vote.
- Hanging, drawning and quartering all car owners.
- Disemboweling nuclear workers and closing the plants.
- Going back to the horse-and-carriage method of transportation.
- A slew of other luddite bullshit I can't bring myself to read anymore.

GoT equivalent: the White Walkers - she comes from the north and she'll slaughter anything in her way, no one is safe.


7./8./9./10.

http://blog.slate.fr/europe-27etc/wp...1587801950.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...outou_2011.jpghttp://electionbuzz2012.france24.com.../cheminade.jpghttp://electionbuzz2012.rfi.fr/sites...ont-aignan.jpg
Nathalie Arthaud/Philippe Poutou/Jacques Cheminade/Nicolas Dupont-Aignant: the nobodies (new album out in a week!).

Parties: LO - Worker strike/NPA - New anticapitalist party/S&P - Solidarity & Progress/DLR - Stand up republic!
Location in the hemisphere: far-left/far-left/confused/right-wing
Slogans: Workers (M), Workers (F)/?/?/A free France

Plans for reign: who cares? They're non-factors.

GoT equivalents: No-name background characters.

[Dimmauk]

Why do all of the French guys look like Mr Bean?

[ronin sparthos]

Not gonna lie it took me about 5 seconds to get the connection between the thread content and the thread title.

[Jeryhn]

I got the thread title right away.

Only read the bits about the GoT character comparisons though.

[Ashmada]

Laziness is making you miss many lulz, if I do say so myself.

[Conrad]

http://i44.tinypic.com/2196gk5.gif

[Ksandra]

Is this about France? Are we supposed to care about France? Does France even exist anymore?


mmm France


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_W-pG7tUmJk..._out_fries.jpg

[Dimmauk]

Is this about France? Are we supposed to care about France? Does France even exist anymore?


mmm France


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_W-pG7tUmJk..._out_fries.jpg

You made me think about this

[Ksandra]

You made me think about this

ahahaha I love that movie!

[Cantih]

What are the current odds on Sarkozy being tossed out?

[Ashmada]

Well, as you might know, french presidential elections are a 2-round affair: round 1 involves all candidates that managed to get 500+ signatures from elected officials, round 2 involves the 2 candidates that gathered the most votes in round 1.

Usually, round 2 takes place between the main right-wing party (currently the UMP) and the main left-wing party (currently and indeed historically the PS), but there's been at least one exception in 2002 where the Socialist candidate (Lionel Jospin) ended up third and round 2 was disputed by Jacques Chirac (RPR-previous name of the UMP) and Jean-Marie Le Pen (Marine's holocaust-denying xenophobic dad, previous leader of the FN).
Le Pen's gloating was short-lived: in round 2 he took an unprecedented thrashing, garnering only ~18% of the votes.


If things go traditionally (Sarkozy vs Hollande), the polls have 'kozy losing by a significant margin (57/43 split, last I saw).

But the question is: will they go traditionally?
The 2002 situation could arise again, on both sides: if the left-wing vote is heavily divided (and Mélenchon's rising popularity makes it a very real possibility), they could, like in 2002, all fail to take one of 2 the lead spots

And if the right-wing vote is heavily divided (Sarkozy's unpopularity and Marine Le Pen's relative popularity some months ago made it a very real possibility), they could all fail to take one of 2 the lead spots.



It's a weird system, really. If the far-left is popular, round 2 could oppose a right-wing candidate and a far-right candidate; if the far-right is popular, round 3 could oppose a left-wing candidate and a far-left candidate.

Still, all things considered, Hollande's got the best claim to the throne atm.
Interestingly, if it hadn't been for events occuring on US soil, he wouldn't even be in the race.

[Kuya]

I actually liked the OP

[Ashmada]

Round 1 Temp results (10PM; 30 min ago):

François Hollande: 28,8%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 26,1%
Marine Le Pen: 18,5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 11,7%
François Bayrou 8,8%
Eva Joly: 2,3%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 1,8%
Philippe Poutou: 1,2%
Nathalie Arthaud: 0,6%
Jacques Cheminade: 0,2%.

Nothing too surprising here, save for the Greens' extremely poor performance, that's "nobody" range.


Round 2 prévisions (opinion polls):
Hollande 54%
Sarkozy 46%


Good news on an EU level and even a worldwide level: Hollande has called for a re-examination/modification/maybe even repeal of Hadopi (the french SOPA/PIPA), so he's likely to oppose global threats to internet freedom like ACTA.

[Kuya]

I would have been happy with a socialist winning the election in France, but these days i don't trust that having socialist or any lefty sounding word in your party's name is an assurance of actual lefty policy.

[tyven]

OP is 10/10. Glad i clicked this thread.

[Ashmada]

In France, it kinda is. Comparatively, in France the executive-legislative power balance is strongly weighed towards the executive, and the president has a nigh-absolute grip on the executive.

Sadly, the same can't be said in Belgium. We have a socialist PM (Elio di Rupo), but since we're under a system of proportional representation (not a majority representation like most countries), policies are always decided by a coalition and it's all very nebulous.


Anyway, Hollande hasn't won yet.
The polls predict him a 54% majority, but the numbers paint a different picture:
(warning: assumptions galore incoming)

- Assumption 1: Those who voted for Hollande or Sarkozy in round 1 will vote for them in round 2.
A pretty safe assumption, I doubt they'll completely change their mind in 2 weeks, barring a major mistake from one of the candidates.
François Hollande: 28,8%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 26,1%


- Assumption 2: Dupont-Aignant voters -> Sarko voters.
François Hollande: 44,8%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 27,9%

- Assumption 3: Those who voted for Mélenchon, Joly Poutou, Arthaud and Cheminade will vote for Hollande.
Not as safe as the previous one, but it's highly unlikely they'd go for the right-winger... unless they're complete tools who vote randomly.
Less safe in Joly's case: most Greens vote purely based on ecology themes, they don't necessarily agree with left-wing rhethoric on social and economical issues; still Hollande did promise to close some nuclear plants, so they should rally to his banner.
François Hollande: 44,8%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 27,9%


- Assumption 4: Le Pen voters -> Sarko voters.
Not really that safe. FN electorate is quite confused, and the Le Pens like it that way.
Nicolas Sarkozy: 46,4%
François Hollande: 44,8%


So, as is frequent in EU politics, centrists (Bayrou's electorate) are the real kingmakers here.

The defeated candidates usually call to vote for one of the remaining ones; it's safe to say they'll go the way I've paired them up except for Marine Le Pen who probably won't recommend either, as is the FN tradition.
Bayrou might or might not and if he does, he might go either way; his decision is the real key to the elections, not the round 2 of campaigning.

[Cadsuane]

You've painted Hollande as a pretty cool dude. If he gets elected, is he really the social democrat messiah who's going to bring France back from the precipice of being too fucking French?

[Ashmada]

I'm afraid that's impossible.

[MaachaQ]

[Ashmada]

Naaah, that's the british way (PM, not prez). The french wouldn't dare deny their leaders copious and lengthy parading about. In 1978, the winner was decided after a gruelling campaign culminating in 1 debate, 3 modelling sessions (Baladur owned the swimsuit one) and an altogether queer² rite involving berets, a printing press and a proffusion of snails.