Iran Nuclear Deal

[Serra]

Iranian Nuclear Deal announced:

After tortuous talks that spanned 20 months, negotiators have reached a landmark deal aimed at reining in Iran's nuclear program.

The agreement, a focal point of U.S. President Barack Obama's foreign policy, appears set to reshape relations between Iran and the West, with its effects likely to ripple across the volatile Middle East.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/14/politi...eal/index.html

Things I've read so far:
Restrictions on the amount of nuclear fuel Iran can stockpile over the next 15 years.
Reducing their supply of low-grade enriched uranium by 98%.
2/3 reduction in centrifuges.
Relaxing of Iran's sanctions as they meet these and other requirements.
Arms embargo will be lifted (in five years).


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/wo...ions.html?_r=0

Still waiting on more details of the deal and waiting on Obama to speak on it here in a little.

Edit:
Deal isn't built on trust, built on verification -- inspectors have 24/7 access to everything related to the deal.

Edit 2:
IAEA inspectors have permanent access to everything.

Edit 3:
If Iran violates any part of the deal, all the sanctions snap back into place.

[Olo401]

And cue Bibi with the 'waah waah we didn't get what we want so it's a bad deal' routine. That wasn't the fucking point of this effort, moron. Stop trotting out the past to excuse bad behavior now. The point was to talk to them directly for a change. And build on that compromise over the next ten years and work towards greater trust and/or verifications.

Of course, the international community will never stand up to Bibi and/or the Israeli govt, because they'll just whine more and roll out the Holocaust as an excuse.

[Byrthnoth]

Sounds like a pretty solid deal if they stick to it.

[Andalusian girls]

the inspection process is a comic absurdity, inspectors are allowed access to nuclear facilities Iran has officially declared but are explicitly not accorded access to undeclared nuclear sites, the kind where Iran has always conducted much of its illicit research. we gave Iran the right to deny IAEA inspectors anytime-anywhere access, from which point the issue is adjudicated by an arbitration committee, a committee on which Iran sits. and even should the request for access be approved they approval process will take some three weeks, at which point the Iranians can simply refuse to comply. in the event of non-compliance there will be a further 50-day process wherein three separate bodies evaluate the dispute. comic, absurd. Alice in Nuclearland

the last-minute concessions regarding the arms embargo (A United Nations embargo mind you) is likewise deeply troubling, the irresponsible acquiescence of an administration desperate for legacy. a treaty ostensibly about nuclear proliferation yet we set a timeline for lifting both the small arms embargo and the ballistic missile embargo on a hegemonic, rabidly anti-Sunni regime, whose weapons are currently engaged in ethnic cleansing in both Iraq and Syria? with terrorist proxies from Hamas to Houthi to Hezbollah? madness, madness and stupidity.

furthermore the extra-constitutionality of the accord may invalidate all the strenuous efforts taken over the past decade. Obama will not send the agreement to Congress because it cannot pass either chamber (ergo he cannot call it a treaty unlike the arms agreements treaties with Russia/USSR), and what one president can do another can as easily undo. we may well be revisiting this issue in 18-months, but from a much weaker diplomatic position, without the international sanctions coalition which took years of horse-trading to build, leaving a military option more likely than ever.

Iran will not go nuclear tomorrow but they will legally be allowed to be on a nuclear threshold for years to come by allowing them to retain both enriched uranium and the centrifuges required to make it, albeit in far more limited quantities than they currently declare. given they have cheated on every prior international agreement with us and our inspection process is meager that threshold may be very close to a bomb indeed. i strongly suspect Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt and Turkey will up their nuclear capabilities to a similar threshold-state and we are looking at mass nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. not to mention the conventional lethality of Iran's proxies, from Assad's regime in Syria to the Houthi rebels of Yemen, will increase given the lifting of both economic sanctions and the arms embargo.

the caustic Republican hatred of all things Obama is wearing but this agreement is one issue where their hyperbole is not entirely unfounded. this accord is a disgrace and was negotiated with a rank amateurism throughout. further destabilization of a region already collapsing into chaos is the most probable result.

[mallister]

^Pretty much this.

[Inshiya]

the inspection process is a comic absurdity, inspectors are allowed access to nuclear facilities Iran has officially declared but are explicitly not accorded access to undeclared nuclear sites, the kind where Iran has always conducted much of its illicit research. we gave Iran the right to deny IAEA inspectors anytime-anywhere access, from which point the issue is adjudicated by an arbitration committee, a committee on which Iran sits. and even should the request for access be approved they approval process will take some three weeks, at which point the Iranians can simply refuse to comply. in the event of non-compliance there will be a further 50-day process wherein three separate bodies evaluate the dispute. comic, absurd. Alice in Nuclearland

the last-minute concessions regarding the arms embargo (A United Nations embargo mind you) is likewise deeply troubling, the irresponsible acquiescence of an administration desperate for legacy. a treaty ostensibly about nuclear proliferation yet we set a timeline for lifting both the small arms embargo and the ballistic missile embargo on a hegemonic, rabidly anti-Sunni regime, whose weapons are currently engaged in ethnic cleansing in both Iraq and Syria? with terrorist proxies from Hamas to Houthi to Hezbollah? madness, madness and stupidity.

furthermore the extra-constitutionality of the accord may invalidate all the strenuous efforts taken over the past decade. Obama will not send the agreement to Congress because it cannot pass either chamber (ergo he cannot call it a treaty unlike the arms agreements treaties with Russia/USSR), and what one president can do another can as easily undo. we may well be revisiting this issue in 18-months, but from a much weaker diplomatic position, without the international sanctions coalition which took years of horse-trading to build, leaving a military option more likely than ever.

Iran will not go nuclear tomorrow but they will legally be allowed to be on a nuclear threshold for years to come by allowing them to retain both enriched uranium and the centrifuges required to make it, albeit in far more limited quantities than they currently declare. given they have cheated on every prior international agreement with us and our inspection process is meager that threshold may be very close to a bomb indeed. i strongly suspect Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt and Turkey will up their nuclear capabilities to a similar threshold-state and we are looking at mass nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. not to mention the conventional lethality of Iran's proxies, from Assad's regime in Syria to the Houthi rebels of Yemen, will increase given the lifting of both economic sanctions and the arms embargo.

the caustic Republican hatred of all things Obama is wearing but this agreement is one issue where their hyperbole is not entirely unfounded. this accord is a disgrace and was negotiated with a rank amateurism throughout. further destabilization of a region already collapsing into chaos is the most probable result.

While your copy/paste from other sites parroting what you've read is amusing, you're misrepresenting the entire issue.

Why would we be granted "unlimited access to undeclared sites." That's literally saying that you wanted us to be able to go -anywhere- in Iran at any time, "just in case there's a secret nuclear facility there!"

Even given that narrative, Iran agreed to allow us to request access to areas having no relation to nuclear research, but requested a committee to resolve the issue where we can present evidence to why we think there are problems there.

The weapons embargo is one smart part of their sanctions, but it was entirely based on a punishment for their development. They're fully within their rights to develop and maintain their military power and we've no reason to restrict them (beyond limiting their nuclear development).

There's not extra-constitutionality to this. And while you're correct that the next President could overturn this, they won't (especially Hillary).

And yes, this plan will legally allow Iran to obtain nukes in about 15 years. Any other plan to stop that would result in WAR WITH IRAN. Those were our options: 1) continue sanctions that weren't working and watch Iran build a bomb in the next 2 years; 2) negotiate and prevent them from obtaining one for 15 years while lifting crucifying sanctions to allow their economy to flourish again; 3) go to war.

Guess which option the republican chicken hawks favor?

[Marootsoobutsu]

the inspection process is a comic absurdity, inspectors are allowed access to nuclear facilities Iran has officially declared but are explicitly not accorded access to undeclared nuclear sites, the kind where Iran has always conducted much of its illicit research. we gave Iran the right to deny IAEA inspectors anytime-anywhere access, from which point the issue is adjudicated by an arbitration committee, a committee on which Iran sits. and even should the request for access be approved they approval process will take some three weeks, at which point the Iranians can simply refuse to comply. in the event of non-compliance there will be a further 50-day process wherein three separate bodies evaluate the dispute. comic, absurd. Alice in Nuclearland

the last-minute concessions regarding the arms embargo (A United Nations embargo mind you) is likewise deeply troubling, the irresponsible acquiescence of an administration desperate for legacy. a treaty ostensibly about nuclear proliferation yet we set a timeline for lifting both the small arms embargo and the ballistic missile embargo on a hegemonic, rabidly anti-Sunni regime, whose weapons are currently engaged in ethnic cleansing in both Iraq and Syria? with terrorist proxies from Hamas to Houthi to Hezbollah? madness, madness and stupidity.

furthermore the extra-constitutionality of the accord may invalidate all the strenuous efforts taken over the past decade. Obama will not send the agreement to Congress because it cannot pass either chamber (ergo he cannot call it a treaty unlike the arms agreements treaties with Russia/USSR), and what one president can do another can as easily undo. we may well be revisiting this issue in 18-months, but from a much weaker diplomatic position, without the international sanctions coalition which took years of horse-trading to build, leaving a military option more likely than ever.

Iran will not go nuclear tomorrow but they will legally be allowed to be on a nuclear threshold for years to come by allowing them to retain both enriched uranium and the centrifuges required to make it, albeit in far more limited quantities than they currently declare. given they have cheated on every prior international agreement with us and our inspection process is meager that threshold may be very close to a bomb indeed. i strongly suspect Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt and Turkey will up their nuclear capabilities to a similar threshold-state and we are looking at mass nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. not to mention the conventional lethality of Iran's proxies, from Assad's regime in Syria to the Houthi rebels of Yemen, will increase given the lifting of both economic sanctions and the arms embargo.

the caustic Republican hatred of all things Obama is wearing but this agreement is one issue where their hyperbole is not entirely unfounded. this accord is a disgrace and was negotiated with a rank amateurism throughout. further destabilization of a region already collapsing into chaos is the most probable result.

Pretty much this. The Iranians basically got everything they wanted, and they made literally zero meaningful concessions, and what concessions they made (meaningless or not) are the kinds of concessions they have been making for decades and then utterly ignoring.

[Inshiya]

Seriously, what did you guys want? Iran to say "we're never going to build a nuke ever, and we'll never build a military, and you can enter any facility in our nation at any time, and you can still keep all your sanctions in place."

We reduced Iran's nuke build time from 3 months (current) to about 15 years (1 year break out if they just flat out ignored us right now). We shut down 2/3rds of their reactors and reduced their production rate of enriched product by 99%.

Nevermind two of our allies in the region have nuclear capability that we helped them develop.

[Andalusian girls]

while your copy paste from other sites parroting what you've read is amusing it would be HELPFUL if you continued to CAPITALIZE your most SALIENT points

[Marootsoobutsu]

Seriously, what did you guys want? Iran to say "we're never going to build a nuke ever, and we'll never build a military, and you can enter any facility in our nation at any time, and you can still keep all your sanctions in place."

We reduced Iran's nuke build time from 3 months (current) to about 15 years (1 year break out if they just flat out ignored us right now). We shut down 2/3rds of their reactors and reduced their production rate of enriched product by 99%.

Nevermind two of our allies in the region have nuclear capability that we helped them develop.

I would be content with, "We will halt nuclear weapons programs forever," "we will have fiscal transparency regarding state sponsored terrorism", substantially less laughable inspections (though not "Come in anywhere, anywhen without notice" levels-- but something that could actually be effective and enforced, unlike this), with us lifting sanctions, and possibly providing infrastructural aid at their guidance. I'd be quite content to consider more than that, but the hard line has to be "No nukes, ever (and with that ICBMs), and no more terrorism," and both have to come with meaningful ways of inspecting and enforcing them. Without that, no deal is worth anything.

[Salodin]

Who are you to tell Iran they can't have nukes as a deterrant when their neighbors are notorious for fucking them over for thousands of years? The same neighbors that are either looking for nukes of their own, or already have them? Leave your terrorism fear mongering at the Fox news desk.

[mallister]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kerry-say...070223527.html

[Waraji]

I mean, if they can just wipe each other out without bringing the Western World into it... "Porque no los dos?"

Elon Musk better hurry up with that Mars plan gdit.

[Ragnus]

Personally I believe no international deal is ever going to be perfect. All I know is that this deal pushed Iran having the ability to make a weapon from a couple months to about 15 years. I have little doubt that someone is going to turn the region into a nuclear wasteland sometime in this century, but, for now, it's put it off for about a decade and a half at this point.

[Tarage]

Dealing with Iran is like dealing with North Korea. They will say one thing to one group of people, and another to another. It's laughable to think they will be honest about anything, especially in a deal with the west which they have spent decades demonizing. Look at our reaction to the whole Cuba thing. It's going to take a loooooong time for relations to heal, and even then, I don't trust anything to happen given their heinous track record of shunning inspectors. Hell, they said in front of the UN "Yeah good luck getting those sanctions back in the bottle if we decide not to play ball anymore."

[Marootsoobutsu]

Personally I believe no international deal is ever going to be perfect. All I know is that this deal pushed Iran having the ability to make a weapon from a couple months to about 15 years. I have little doubt that someone is going to turn the region into a nuclear wasteland sometime in this century, but, for now, it's put it off for about a decade and a half at this point.

Wait. You buy the hype that this delayed things by 15 years?

Let's look at this from Iran's perspective.

First, treaties with infidels aren't binding, and considering the next public speech from the Ayatollah was punctuated with "Death to America", color me unimpressed with their diplomatic spirit.

Second, if Iran is a couple of months away from the nuke, they aren't signing any treaties without it, unless it's to stymie lolUSA into not going to war for a couple of months so they can finish. They aren't putting that on hold for anything or anyone-- and oh, look. It will take months to go investigate anywhere they are conducting their serious work. Congratulations; we just put in place a treaty that will let them finish their work in the next few months uninterrupted and unworried. WHEW! Dodged a bullet there!

Alternatively, Obama's as misinformed on Iran's nuclear-nearness as Bush was. I know, I know-- a president would never act on inaccurate information that speaks to something they might be inclined to believe. That's just crazy! So, let's go by this hypothesis for a moment, and Iran is in fact no where near the nuke (but still wants one). Iran needs money and materiel to get it, something that sanctions are crippling their ability to get. So, they need sanctions gone-- well, that happened. They also need the ability to not only continue to research secretly, but the ability to move evidence. Well, they got that in this treaty, with basically a minimum of 3 months notice (and likely much longer). So, essentially, this treaty gave Iran the ability to finish their research *much faster* than they otherwise would have if they aren't close.


While no international deal is ever going to be "perfect" (international deals should be steps in progress), this was nothing like a step of progress for... well, anyone but Iran. We got a treaty from a nation that has repeatedly, regularly, and with enthusiasm flaunted its unwillingness to be bound by such treaties, especially treaties with the US that it feels it has an obligation to deceive. Seriously: if we approach this understanding Iran on the basis of the way Iran has behaved since the Ottoman Empire was dissolved, assuming that it's not posturing, it's not an act, it's a cultural difference that does not embrace democracy as an ideal, that does not embrace freedom as an ideal but as a deception of the devil, that does not accept the right of enemies to exist.... then this treaty takes on a whole new light. And we're not talking about what the average dude or dudette in Iran might want; we're talking about the priesthood in charge (though I suspect the average person isn't that far off).

And we don't need to think of that in absurd terms: how many people in the US have a "Nuke 'em all and sell the glass" attitude? Now consider an America in which there is nearly zero oppositional voice, and that that is the sentiment-- for GENERATIONS-- of those in charge of education, of the media, of worship, of basically all information received.


I mean, I've heard that this is supposed to delay them getting nukes for 15 years, but I see absolutely zero practical way to enforce that, and I see literally zero reason to expect Iran to hold to the parts of this treaty it doesn't want to.

[Tarage]

The only way to prevent Iran from getting nukes is to remove Iran. I'm sorry if you think otherwise.

[shepardG]

True lol

[Marootsoobutsu]

The only way to prevent Iraq from getting nukes is to remove Iraq. I'm sorry if you think otherwise.

Why have I heard this song before?

Edit: you probably aren't wrong, though.

[Blubbartron]

Why have I heard this song before?

Edit: you probably aren't wrong, though.

This song?