Thalassocrat, bad luck or bad crafter?

[Olbohn]

So I've been synthing these as of late and so far I'm 5/10 on it.

10 synths and 5 breaks.

I have 102 WW, 60 Smithing and 60 GS (I get imagery here to push it to 60)

I know synths with 2 sub crafts have a higher break rate but... I had two back to back breaks on these synths. I'm either;

1. Below the WW cap or
2. Being a craft with 2 sub crafts, this break rate is typical
3. I'm incredibly bad luck.

Which is it? and if its answer 1, anyone know the real skill cap for it?

[Kuji]

Unfourtanetly that's typical break rate, just be glad it's not THAT expensive.

[AzazaelFenrir]

I would think it is bad luck. I have been crafting these for a while trying for another +1 and have broke maybe 2 in the last 15.

[Rilu]

I have gotten the same results with Kyudogi, which also has 2 lvl 60 subcrafts (gold and leather). Usually there is just a higher break rate on the more difficult synths. Also, I know people will say that "It doesn't matter if you get imagery" because it doesn't technically, but I've had a lot more problems crafting things with multiple subcrafts if they were underleveled, regardless of if I got support or not. One simple example would be the yagudo headdress - it requires like 57 bonecraft or something liek that, and I would craft them for people starting when I was 54 bone. I would get advanced support for bone and then synth - and I broke about half of them (6/15) .I capped bone though and didn't need support anymore, I have gone 20/20 on them, haven't broken a single one.

[Fiendishone]

1) which direction/day of the week are ya making them on?

2) get the +3 already! can make all the difference in the world.

3) for Azazael, how much did you sell your 1st +1 for? I had mine up for 9m and parked in Bazaarberry Fields the night I made it and sold overnight. Made a 2nd one recently & can't sell for 8m.

[Naash]

2 subcrafts significantly increase the breaking rate.

The formula is believed to be:
2 crafts = 0.95^2*100
3 crafts = 0.95^3*100
% of success

[Hubie]

Barone Corazza used to do that to me too, i had everything leveled. Id break about 60% of them, Moly ingot back then was about 12 mil too. Lost it every single time.

[tymora]

Thalasocrat is 106, so without capping it, you're 4 from the cap. You can verify this cap by talking to the Advanced Synth NPC in the guild. Advanced synth NPCs will only give recipes 106+ in skill. Since you don't see people breaking Thalasocrats like crazy at 106, I think it is safe to assume 106 is the cap.

At 106 skill, break rate is ~15%. 5% for every craft involved. If I remember right, every skill level below cap translates to about 10% break rate? So it will be ~55% for you. 5/10 breaks sounds about right.

If you had checked FFrecipe.com, you would have known the cap. I posted it there a long time ago.

As for whether its 0.95^3 or 0.05 for every craft involved...
0.95^3 will give you about 0.86 (2 decimal) whereas if you just add up the break rate, you get 0.85. 0.95^2 is also 0.90 (2decimal). 0.01 doesn't honestly make much of a difference. For ease & convenience, just use addition.

-----------
Recipes given by the other synth boost NPCs range from 101-105 at skill 100, so it is harder to place exactly where the cap is. In short, if at 100, the recipe is given by a boost NPC, use +3 equip skills and +3 adv synth boost before attempting to be on the safe side.

[Olbohn]

Thalasocrat is 106

If you had checked FFrecipe.com, you would have known the cap. I posted it there a long time ago.

Thanks alot, I would have never thought there was a synth for WW that would take more then 102+ skill since there is no recipe I know of that is that high.

As for FFrecipe.com, I never knew of the existence that site (then agian it is a jp site) so I'll definitely be using that from now on, thanks.

Now that problem is solved....

The problem is to get GS to 60 /sigh

[tymora]

FFRecipe is bilingual - Click the US flag at the top right hand corner to switch it to English.

[Ruuz]

1) which direction/day of the week are ya making them on?

Go fuck yourself.

2 subcrafts significantly increase the breaking rate.

The formula is believed to be:
2 crafts = 0.95^2*100
3 crafts = 0.95^3*100
% of success

This would be my first suspicion. However, the peron claiming 106 base craft level could also explain it.

[Firedemon]

1) which direction/day of the week are ya making them on?

Go fuck yourself.

I don't think the question condones such a vulgar attitude considering the shit's never been proven/disproven. Some people swear by the direction and moon phase, who gives a shit. I go by crafting direction because it's better to believe in something rather than nothing at all IMO. In my personal experience, I break a fuckton using a fire crystal on watersday, so it was a pretty honest question.

[Tahona]

I know that Thala is a T0 synth but why would people buy it for so much? Unless I'm totally wrong.. doesn't it screw with DRGs 6 hit build because of the delay reduction?

[Pirian]

White boxes are pretty, true story.

[Ruuz]

I don't think the question condones such a vulgar attitude considering the shit's never been proven/disproven. Some people swear by the direction and moon phase, who gives a shit. I go by crafting direction because it's better to believe in something rather than nothing at all IMO. In my personal experience, I break a fuckton using a fire crystal on watersday, so it was a pretty honest question.

The problem with keeping the whole direction/moon/day/whatever superstition going is that it has no proof. New crafters come in and they hear experienced crafters making these claims and so they change their own habits/schedule/routine to what they feel they are supposed to do. And all for no reason whatsoever.

All this reminds me of a study I heard about, where food was fed to pigeons randomly in a cage and their behavior was monitored. Each pigeon developed a different quirk (turning around counterclockwise, banging its head against the side of the cage, etc) that, it is assumed, the pigeons felt would yield more food. See the similarity?

The human brain likes to try to explain the unexplainable. Our brain cannot deal with randomness, we have to come up with stories to explain events that are outside our comprehension. Things that we could not possibly know at the time they happened all look so clear in hindsight.

You say that you break more crystals on Watersday? Are you sure? Did you count? What about all the crystals you have broken on Firesday? Or Iceday? You cannot trust your senses, they will deceive you. Your memory is selective.

[Narse]

Never heard of ANY item being over 103 skill...

[cdgreg]

In my personal experience, I break a fuckton using a fire crystal on watersday, so it was a pretty honest question.

Or you're just paying extra special attention at this point because it's what you believe?

[Firedemon]

Or after crafting a good 200+ Federation Kukris and Knives, I feel confident enough to say that in my own crafting experience, watersday yields more breaks with a fire crystal. Again, not once am I saying this is how it is, I'm just stating my personal opinion on the matter.

For the people saying fuck you to weather and shit, I think you're being totally ignorant to something that's never even been proven/disproven.

[cdgreg]

Or after crafting a good 200+ Federation Kukris and Knives, I feel confident enough to say that in my own crafting experience, watersday yields more breaks with a fire crystal. Again, not once am I saying this is how it is, I'm just stating my personal opinion on the matter.

For the people saying fuck you to weather and shit, I think you're being totally ignorant to something that's never even been proven/disproven.

I'm not being ignorant, I'd LOVE to see moon/day/weather proven. I think it'd bring a little fire (no pun intended) back to crafting. Let's assume your comment about 200+ means 200+ of EACH, that would mean about 500? Also assuming you craft at random times there's 8 elemental days so about 63 synths per day. How is 63 synths a large enough sample size on water day to say it's a higher break rate? Do you have any of this documented in a spreadsheet or is it simply observational?

Like I said, I'd LOVE to see this proven, but my mentality is there's been so many people who WANTED to prove it TRUE, they've tried but never come up with conclusive data therefore they never posted the results that disproved the theory they argued so hard for. For people like myself who are in the naysayer camp, I'll believe it's a lie until someone can post conclusive data.

I used to be a firm believer though, I tried batches of 20+ cursed mitt synths on full moon, new moon, dark day, light day, earth day, wind day, and ultimately HQ'd 1/137 on some random moon on Thunder day cause I had given up believing in all the BS. Once again though, much as your story this story of mine uses a very small sample size and purely observational/anecdotal data.

What bugs me most about this is the people who tend to believe it the most seem to be the random LSmates who have no crafting knowledge what so ever. If someone such as yourself who leveled his/her own craft wants to believe it and practice it cool so be it. But for the person who leveled cooking to 9 and then quit tells me I'm doing it wrong when I'm synthing them dusk gloves because I'm not facing SW, wearing W legs for the elemental strength, on wind day, while picking my nose can F off.

[Ruuz]

For the people saying fuck you to weather and shit, I think you're being totally ignorant to something that's never even been proven/disproven.

For the people believing in weather shit, I think you're being totally ignorant and perpetrating that ignorance to something that's never ever been proven/disproven.