NFL Week 9: Mid-Season Bandwagon

[Flarega]

Time to jump on the Dallas bandwagon after 3 hueg wins in a row! Just kidding. Anyway, time for this weeks picks + a mid season special. Some pretty good games this week and no Brett Farve, but Dallas has another fucking primetime game. Almost as annoying as Miami's number of primetime games (don't fract me)

Washington at Atlanta – If anyone reads these threads on a regular basis, they know that Washington is a complete joke this year. Decent rush D with an anemic offense. Unfortunately for them, Atlantas passing attack is starting to become very strong. Atlanta wins big.

Arizona at Chicago – This should be a close game, but I like Chicago since their defense is still decent despite losing Urlacher in the first game, and they haven't lost at home yet. Also, Arizonas road wins have come against crappy teams, or teams that have fallen from grace. (NYG) But Kurt Warner could come out and fuck shit up to avenge his clutch performance last week. Chicago by a FG.

Houston at Indianapolis – This will be a close game since the homer in me thinks Peyton Manning was exposed a bit by SF. Peyton had a big passing game again, but was held to no touchdowns and more three and outs than expected by Indy. I think Houston will try to execute that same type of gameplan, but possibly put up more points than last week due to their stronger offense. That said, Indianapolis has shown that it can find ways to win, and that its Defense will step up when its offense is doing well. So I like indy to win at home because they can win when they have to. Indianapolis by a TD.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – The Ravens this year have proven that their defense is getting old, but their offense is legit. There are a handful of plays that have kept them down, like the Minnesota FG and the Brady penalties, as well as the dropped ball against NE at the end. Still, I like cincy because they are at home, Benson has shown hes a premiere back, and ochocinco is awesome. Also I don't want to get called out if they win and I didn't pick them.

Kansas City at Jacksonville – This is what I expect Miller Jenuine Draft to do:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ewr4BSTr8Q

Green Bay at Tampa Bay – Start of the Josh Freeman era! Yeah, okay no way. Tampa Bays problems are not a QB change from being solved.

Miami at New England – Really I don't think New England's defense is as good as it is on paper. I expect this to be a shoot out since Miami also has some big holes in its secondary that Brady can exploit. New England by a TD.

Carolina at New Orleans – The clutch strikes back! But honestly, if Carolina can get the running game going, expect them to keep up at least a little bit. New Orleans by 2 TDs.

Detroit at Seattle – Er, yeah who cares.

Tennessee at San Francisco – Hopefully after Sunday I'll get to celebrate a win again, its been so long. But yeah, the Titans are nowhere near what they were last year as we all know. I also hope that San Francisco's offense can show they can rack up some scores this week as well. Somehow though I get a bad feeling that they could find a way to lose this game. Hopefully I'm wrong. Niners by 2 TDs and VY a career ending injury after a sack by Patrick Willis.

San Diego at New York Giants – The chargers are made up of some of the biggest underachievers in the NFL. I hate them. But I have to pick them here since New York has shown their defense is not as almighty as we thought, and the chargers have an excellent QB despite him being a total clown. San Diego by 10.

Dallas at Philadelphia – Philly has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league for the past few years. But they already laid their yearly goose egg and we can only hope that Romo clutches up so Dallas fans stop talking about beating New Orleans and all that junk. The eagles really need an offense that doesn't need to rely on big plays to win this week. But as a Niners fan I have to pick against Dallas. Philadelphia by a FG.

Pittsburgh at Denver – All I really know about Denver is that they have one of the best defenses in the league and I don't buy that for a second (also something about some sort of beard). Ben will come out big and torch them like last week with some old fashioned hit you in the mouth football. Man what a lame pun. Pittsburgh by two TDs.

Okay, thats it for this weeks picks so its time for mid season playoff predictions!

NFC
1. New Orleans
2. Minnesota
3. Philadelphia
4. San Francisco (homertime)
Wild Cards
5. Green Bay
6. Atlanta
Fuck Dallas

AFC
1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Cincinnati
4. Denver
Wild Cards
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

SuperBowl
New Orleans over Indianapolis

I have no season record since I usually don't make picks but I wanted to make the thread so there you go.

[Rem]

Good job.

I too agree with your homer analysis, this includes San Francisco taking the west. Also Leon is the fucking man, good choice there. lol

[archibaldcrane]

Man I really hope the NFC East gets shut out of the wildcard like you suggest.

Additional question: Aaron Rodgers - Plus or Minus 3.5 sacks?

[Flarega]

He could probably sack Josh Freeman twice.

[Plow]

FFS Farve brough up in the 3rd sentence of the thread ON HIS BYE WEEK.

[Sol-Blackguy]

Looking for Baltimore D to not make the same mistakes as their first encounter with Cinci. The D is stepping up like every year around this time. Ochocinco is going to learn how you stop 85 this sunday. If they get the lead and Palmer gets the ball with ~2.30 in the 4th, shit might get serious. Palmer seems to go into beast mode when it's down to the wire.

[Flarega]

FFS Farve brough up in the 3rd sentence of the thread ON HIS BYE WEEK.

Yeah hes not playing this week. Great amirite?

[archibaldcrane]

FFS Farve brough up in the 3rd sentence of the thread ON HIS BYE WEEK.

Just to get it out of the way.

Spoiler: show

Jan. 20, 2002
The reality: The Packers have a shot to reach the conference championship game for first time since the 1997 season if they beat Rams in the divisional round.
The Favre apologist fantasy: The 12-4 Packers were no match for the 14-2 Rams
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Rams edged out the 11-5 Eagles by just five points in the conference title game and lost to the 11-5 Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Packers easily could have beat the Rams if Favre had not thrown 6 picks – tying the single-game NFL record for postseason picks last matched by a passer back in 1955.

Jan. 4, 2003
The reality: The 12-4 Packers were again one of the best teams in football, playing at home against the tepid 9-6-1 Falcons.
The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre walks on water.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre sinks like a lead weight, reserving one of his worst performances of the year (20 of 42, 47.6%, 247 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT, 54.4 rating) for when it matters most in a 27-7 loss. It was Green Bay's lowest offensive output of the season and the franchise’s first-ever home playoff loss.

Jan. 11, 2004
The reality: The Packers need to produce just one drive in overtime to beat the Eagles and then battle the Panthers for a chance to go to Super Bowl XXXVIII.
The Favre apologist fantasy: The Green Bay Favrers defense let Brett down when they surrendered a miracle 4th and 26 completion by Donovan McNabb in the fourth quarter, allowing the Eagles to tie the game.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: On Green Bay's first play of overtime, Favre promptly tossed a bad pass into the hands of Eagles defender Brian Dawkins. McNabb quickly drove the offense into easy field goal range for the victory. The Favrers defense disappointed Brett by sacking McNabb a mere 8 times, while the Favrers ground game failed to hold up its end of the bargain with just 210 yards and a measly average of 5.7 YPA. Favre passed for 180 yards, one of his lowest outputs of the year.

Jan. 9, 2005
The reality: The 10-6 Packers draw a gimme, landing the 8-8 Vikings at home in the wildcard round.
The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre heals lepers.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre turns out a gruesomely disfiguring playoff performance (22 of 33, 66.7%, 216 yards, 6.5 YPA, 1 TD, 4 INT, 55.4 rating), as Packers suffer a humiliating 31-17 loss to one of the worst teams ever to reach the playoffs. Had the Seahawks not lost to the Rams just one day earlier, Favre would have been the first quarterback in history to lose a playoff game to a .500 team.

The 2005 season
The reality: The Packers suffer their first losing season in the Favre Era.
The Favre apologist fantasy: The Packers went 4-12 because Favre had no talent around him.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Eight times in the 2005 season, Favre took the field in the fourth quarter with his team in position to tie or take the lead and a chance for him to play the role of hero. In all eight games, he threw crushing interceptions that killed any hopes for victory. Favre’s 29 picks that year are the most thrown by any quarterback in the past 20 years. (See all of Favre's 2005 disasters outlined here .)

The 2006 season
The reality: Packers climb back to respectability with an 8-8 record.
The Favre apologist fantasy: Favre helped the blind to see.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre had trouble focusing on the field, with a 72.7 passer rating that was among the worst in football that season. The list of quarterbacks with a better rating in 2006 included some of the most widely ridiculed passers in football: David Carr (82.1), Michael Vick (75.7), Alex Smith (74.8) and Rex Grossman (73.9)

Jan. 20, 2008
The reality: The 13-3 Packers were favored at home against the 10-6 Giants on one of the coldest nights in Lambeau Field history.
The Favre apologist fantasy: The Packers ran into a buzzsaw and lost to the eventual Super Bowl champs.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Favre, and the Packers offense, suffered one of the most colossal collapses in history. In the fourth quarter and overtime, Favre completed 4 of 10 passes for 32 yards with 2 INTs. Green Bay’s final four drives, with a Super Bowl appearance easily within its grasp, went for 0, 7, 0 and 2 yards. Favre’s final pick, on the second play of overtime, led directly to the Giants’ game-winning field goal. No wonder Cheeseheads continue to cling to 1996 as if it were yesterday: the memories Favre provided them in the years since were too painful to bear.

The 2008 season
The reality: Favre wrote a typical Favre-style tragedy that ruined what looked like a promising season for his new team, thet Jets, who led the AFC East with an 8-3 record through 11 games.
The Favre apologist fantasy: An injury prevented Favre from writing a great comeback story with his new team.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It is true that Favre was injured late in the 2008 season. But either the injury was not very bad, or he and the organization put his consecutive-games streak ahead of the welfare of the team, because he still took the field every week. And when he did, it resulted in a classic late-season meltdown for the old gunslinger. Favre was dreadful during the stretch-run collapse, throwing 2 TDs against 9 picks. INTs lead directly to losses, and the Jets went 1-4 over the final five games, and missed the playoffs despite their hot 8-3 start. Favre ended the season with an 81.0 passer rating: 20 NFL starters last year posted a better mark, and few of them are considered champion-caliber quarterbacks. An injury might be a good excuse … had we not seen Favre weave these fantasies time and again in his career.

[Kyo]

My upset of the week, Dallas over philly, I know im reaching a bit but Im prepaird to homer it up, this would be a huge win for us.

[Marootsoobutsu]

stuff

I won't lie, that gave me wood.

Also: FU Scheffler, for screwing up a unanimous ESPN prediction for a Steelers win on Monday.



My picks, following my worst week of predictions in 5 years:

Falcons over Redskins

Cardinals over Bears Along with the Bengals/Ravens game, the hardest for me to pick this week. With the Bears, I know I get to watch a below-average team try to muddle themselves through 60 minutes of football without embarrassing themselves too badly. With the Cardinals, though, who the hell knows? I think if these two play each other 16 times in a season, the Cardinals win ten. So I'm sticking with my totally made-up, arbitrary odds and going with Warner to have a short (and angry) memory.

Colts over Texans

Bengals over Ravens I want to pick the Ravens here. I really do. I'm not ready to jump on a Bengals bandwagon and call them a truly good team; like Denver, most of their wins were 4th quarter come-backs... but the Ravens this year haven't impressed me much, either... their only win this year against a winning team was against Denver. Beating the Chiefs (barely), the Chargers (barely), doesn't impress me, and yes, the game against the Vikings was close, but man... both teams were trying to give that game away. They just make too many mistakes for me to trust them on the road.

Jaguars over Chiefs

Packers over Bucs Tampa should have to wear their creamsicle uniforms from the 70s and 80s. The Yucks are back!

Pats over Dolphins

Seahawks over Lions Seattle's at home, or I'd go the other way. As importantly, the Lions are on the road, which pretty much ensures a loss.

49ers over Titans The good news: the 49ers finally beat a team not in the NFC West! The bad news: It's a team playing poorly enough to belong there.

Giants over Chargers The Giants are a better team than the last three weeks have shown; I just don't see this team dropping four in a row, and that's a long-ass trip for San Diego.

Eagles over Cowboys, though if both teams suffered from an outbreak of cholera, I would be happy.

Broncos over Steelers Yeah, yeah, homerism, blah blah blah. While the Steelers wins aren't really against impressive teams (except the Vikings), their losses both came without Hairy, and both were close enough that I really think that one player would have made the difference. But, I like Denver to bounce back from getting punched in the mouth, especially with the game in Mile High. I still think they are a very good team. Not calling it a gimme or any such thing; I just think Denver's good enough to win at home.

Edit: Stats

6-7 last week (ouch)
34-20 overall

[Plow]

also

Green Bay at Tampa Bay – Start of the Josh Freeman era! Yeah, okay no way. Tampa Bays problems are not a QB change from being solved

Freeman is not VY brought in to save the season and deliver them to a super bowl victory.


He's not a "fix," he's in there cuz the season's fucked and they want him to be ready to roll next year to lead them to an uber 7-9 season.

[Stiker]

Washington vs. Atlanta - Washington is fucking terrible, etc

Arizona vs. Chicago - This is a game with two teams that I just can't figure out. I don't know who is going to actually show up in this matchup. Considering Warner just had a fucking awful, Clutch-like week, I'll take him and the Cards to bounce back and steal one on the road.

Baltimore vs Cincinnati - Ravens did just come off of a big win, but the Bengals took them out before on the road, so I'll pick them to do it again at home.

Houston vs. Indianapolis - Gotta stick with Manning and the Colts.

Miami vs. New England - Coming off a bye, I expect NE to just come out on fire in this one.

Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay - Tampa sucks, etc.

Kansas City vs. Jacksonville - Kansas City sucks, etc.

Detroit vs. Seattle - both these teams suck, but Seattle sucks just a little less. How does that loss against St. Louis feel right about now boys?

Carolina vs. New Orlenas - Should be an easy NO win, but I'm going to route for Clutch to have another solid game just to drive Miz crazy.

San Diego vs New York Giants - SD is flying to an opposite coast, so this should be a perfect time for NYG to get back on track with a win. NYG has been exposed a bit as of late, but I don't see SD being able to do anything about it.

Tennessee vs San Francisco - VY got a win, whoda thunk it? He better enjoy it, because there is about to be a severe crash back down to reality.

Dallas vs Philadelphia - To be honest, even without the Cowboys recent winning streak, I would've picked them here. The ass kicking they received last year is still fresh on their minds and no one around here has let them forget it. While McNabb and company do tend to lay an egg somewhere in the season unexplicably, they also tend to lay another one against a NFC East rival. I'll take this as that WTF loss.

Pittsburgh vs. Denver - The Orton ride back to reality continues against yet another tough defense.

BG Pick 'Em Record
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 81-35

Midseason Predictions

NFC Divsion Champs
East: Philly
North: Minnesota
South: New Orleans
West: San Francisco

NFC Wildcards
Dallas
Atlanta

AFC Division Champs
East: New England
North: Pittsburgh
South: Indy
West: Denver

AFC Wildcards
Cincinnati
Houston

NFC Championship
New Orleans vs. Minnesota

AFC Championship
Indy vs. New England

Super Bowl
Minnesota vs Indy

[Makaveli]

Its funny you mention the creamsicle uniforms for the Bucs because they are wearing them this week for thier new ring of honor thing

[Headspace]

Apparently in Stiker's world, Pitt's going to win the division and wild card.

[deft]

I don't usually post picks but I figure now is as good a time as any. This season has been really interesting this far with the amount of awful teams. And my team's actually doing something with its talent, brett favre, etc.

Baltimore @ Cinci I don't expect the Ravens to let Benson run all over them this time and their offense is looking pretty good.

Miami @ NE As much as I hate the pats and want the dolphins to do well this year I expect NE to blow them out. Brady's revenge for last year.

KC @ Jacksonville Give the ball to MJD and win.

Houston @ Indianapolis I expect this to be close, but the colts will probably keep winning until they play a tough team at home (maybe the Ravens?)

Arizona @ Chicago Home field advantage, that is all.

Washington @ Atlanta Matt Ryan has never lost three games in a row... and the redskins are awful.

GB @ Tampa I'm predicting a shut out

Carolina @ NO The saints are unstoppable

Detroit @ Seattle Seattle is perhaps the most bipolar team in the league, they may shut out the lions or they may get 20+ put on them. Either way I think the lion's defense is bad enough to lose this game.

Tennessee @ SF Michael Crabtree has his breakout game against the stellar titans secondary.

SD @ New York Giants I'm not really big on either team, but if the Giants lose this one, they may be done for the season, mentally at least.

Dallas @ Philly Look for Westbrook's return to correlate with the Eagle's losing, just a hunch.

Pittsburgh @ Denver The Steelers will punish the overrated Broncos.

Playoff Predictions
NFC
West: San Fran
North: Minnesota
South: New Orleans
East: Philadelphia

WC: New York Giants, Atlanta

Championship
NO vs. Minn

AFC
West: San Diego
North: Pittsburgh
South: Indianapolis
East: New England

WC: Cincinnati, Houston

Championship
Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh

Homer time...
Superbowl
Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota

@archibaldcrane "favre stuff"
I used to relish in those moments, now I'm hoping that's all behind him (it's probably not).
I remember that Atlanta@GB playoff game, the announcers wouldn't stop talking about how the packers are -some absurd number- and 0 in below zero weather at home and then Vick goes crazy.

[Kyo]

lolbobsanders, hurt again after one game, god damn.

[Rem]

lolbobsanders, hurt again after one game, god damn.

lol Wtf I don't even remember seeing him get injured. It must of happened on the sidelines or something. He must have hit his elbow on the corner of a table or something which caused it to shatter.

[Stiker]

Apparently in Stiker's world, Pitt's going to win the division and wild card.

The hell is wrong with me today. I meant to put the Bengals for the WC...fixing that...

[Mizango]

lolbobsanders, hurt again after one game, god damn.

Dude needs to just go the fuck away. I know Polian wishes he could take back that massive contract he gave his ass or at least loaded that bitch with playtime and non-injury escalators or something.

Sanders needs to just go away.

[Valisk]

Washington vs. Atlanta
Arizona vs. Chicago
Baltimore vs Cincinnati
Houston vs. Indianapolis
Miami vs. New England
Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay
Kansas City vs. Jacksonville
Detroit vs. Seattle
Carolina vs. New Orlenas
San Diego vs. New York Giants
Tennessee vs. San Francisco
Dallasvs. Philadelphia
Pittsburgh vs. Denver


Midseason Predictions

NFC Divsion Champs
East: NY Giants
North: Minnesota
South: New Orleans
West: San Francisco

NFC Wildcards
Dallas
Atlanta

AFC Division Champs
East: New England
North: Cinncinati
South: Indy
West: Denver

AFC Wildcards
Pittsburg
Houston

NFC Championship
New Orleans vs. Minnesota

AFC Championship
Indy vs. Pittsburg

Super Bowl
Minnesota vs Indy