Mog Math

[fussel]

Since I don't feel digging though a 27 page thread which is mostly about RMT and lotto anyways:

Assumption: Player takes the gil price.

mog bonanza ticket = 1k.

p_rank_1 = 1/100 000, p_rank_2 = 1/10 000, ...
gil_rank_1 = 100 000 000, gil_rank_2 = 10 000 000, ...

expected gil value = sum_i(p_rank_i * gil_rank_i) - ticket price
= 4 * 1000 - 1000
= 3k.

10 tickets for a character = 30k gil per character statistically.

[Yutuyu]

That was around page 11 or so. This post won't exist very long I have a feeling.

[Snapples]

this tells me nothing

[spooky]

I can do maths me.

And?

[fussel]

That was around page 11 or so. This post won't exist very long I have a feeling.

k, then feel free to nuke.

[Tricen]

I can do maths me.

And?

I heard there were ganna be BLM updates soon.

[Tomiko]

I can do maths me.

And?

I heard there were ganna be SAM updates soon.

Fix'd

[fussel]

^ perfect example.

Since I don't feel digging though a 27 page thread which is mostly about RMT and lotto anyways:

[Ichthyos]

Actually, the probabilities aren't quite right.

P (match all 5) = 1/100000
P (match last 4) = 1/10000
P (match last 3) = 1/1000
P (match last 2) = 1/100

P (Rank 1 prize) = P (match last 5) = 1/100000
P (Rank 2 prize) = P (match last 4 but not the first) = 1/10000 - 1/100000 = 9/100000
P (Rank 3 prize) = P (match last 3 but not the first 2) = 1/1000 - 1/10000 = 9/10000
P (Rank 4 prize) = P (match last 2 but not the first 3) = 1/100 - 1/1000 = 9/1000

So basically this just knocks 300G off of the expected value.

[Tajin]

c'mon people, seriously?
How about enjoying the event like any normal virtual bullshit? riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii~iiiiii ght

[Falisa]

Theres a 100% chance this thread will be locked.