RE: Possible coup d'etat in Iran

[Pirian]

Basically a carry over from this thread because I didn't want to necro bump that.

Basically has any more come of this? I haven't really heard much about it in the media since North Korea wanted some attention, and it's something that I've been wondering about for a while. Last I heard was some of the rival party leaders have died in prison after being detained

[ZarakiKujata]

Nothing of consequence has happened. Moussavi still hasn't conceded but protests are nowhere near as strong/frequent/widespread. Council of Experts refused a recount and Khamenei is still sticking w/ his man (Ahmadinejad). Meanwhile in Qom(think of the Jedi Academy but for Shia Muslims) Khatami and Rafsanjani have continued their support of Moussavi/criticism of Khamenei in various ways both public and private. And it's not North Korea's fault that this shit got pushed aside, it's Michael Jackson/Governor Sanford's fault and numerous foreign policy experts/journalists pointed this out as soon as MJ died. Foreign press has been allowed back into the country.

Bottomline, the Revolution of 1979 didn't happen all at once but in many fits and starts so likely any upheaval of the Islamic Republic will continue to gradually build as it has since 1997 especially until the reformers find a person/candidate to get behind who is younger then Ahmadinejad, not aligned in someway with clerics.

[Pirian]

it's Michael Jackson/Governor Sanford's fault and numerous foreign policy experts/journalists pointed this out as soon as MJ died.

I knew it was one or the other, my time-line is kind of messed up. I wasn't really expecting the "revolution" to up and happen all the sudden (although it wouldn't have surprised me if it did), but I didn't know if any of the details had been lost in the bullshit news that news stations cover in order to get higher ratings.

[Kuya]

At this point the issue at hand is a power struggle amongst factions within the government. Which was the real generator of the incident anyway.

[Jodwahh]

Meanwhile in Qom(think of the Jedi Academy but for Shia Muslims)

Nicely put lol.

[Cephius]

Just for future reference, it's not necrobumping if you're staying on topic and looking to add to the discussion... so feel free to bring it back next time.

[Tyr]

Meanwhile in Qom(think of the Jedi Academy but for Shia Muslims)

I feel the need to correct you here -- Iran is a political entity, and its politicians uphold a terrible misnomer by calling it the "Islamic" Republic. Not to say you meant any ill-will, but just to make a small point.

[ZarakiKujata]

I feel the need to correct you here -- Iran is a political entity, and its politicians uphold a terrible misnomer by calling it the "Islamic" Republic. Not to say you meant any ill-will, but just to make a small point.

I'm confused by what you mean my error was?

[Elvis]

Do most Iranians want a non-Islamic government? Or do they want a reformed Islamic government?

[Kuya]

The latter.

[Tyr]

I'm confused by what you mean my error was?

I don't think you made an error, but I wanted to make sure that there wasn't much room for misinterpretation. Qom isn't the "center of Shi'ism," rather a city that houses a number of jurisprudential schools, many of which are government-funded and run. There's a common misconception that "Shi'a = Iran," similar to "Muslim = Arab," which is, at least statistically incorrect (majority of Muslims are from Indonesia).

Do most Iranians want a non-Islamic government? Or do they want a reformed Islamic government?

If you're considering the entire population, it's the latter as Kuya mentioned (at least that's my impression). If I had to choose between one or the other, given what we've seen in the past with "Islamic states," I'd rather the nation be non-Islamic, for a number of reasons.

[Zoolander]

From what I can see and the opinion of most of my International Relations professors is that nothing huge will come at this time. However, this incident was very different in that it really struck at the legitimacy of their entire regime and government. While this may not be cause for a change at this point in time, the regime only won the battle for today. The War is hardly over, and it is likely we will see a more organized and stronger resistance next time. (Although this shit still hasn't completely died down yet...I think to everyone's surprise)

[Khamsin]

I played through A Moogle Kupo d'état, now I know what Iran is going through.

But, more seriously, is the new regime's political stance any different than the old?

On a side note, has Obama publicly condemned this like he did the other coup d'état? lol

[ZarakiKujata]

I played through A Moogle Kupo d'état, now I know what Iran is going through.

But, more seriously, is the new regime's political stance any different than the old?

On a side note, has Obama publicly condemned this like he did the other coup d'état? lol

Um what? It's the same regime that was in power before the election, and political stances in Iran are a very dicey situation especially regarding Moussavi/Ahmadinejad since an argument can be made that both of them present a populist divergence from the governments. Outside of speaking out against the violence being committed against the protestors immediately after the election Obama hasn't said shit, which is the right decision. Obama needs to have good diplomatic relations with Iran regardless of who is in charge and supporting the opposition would piss off the ruling government hurting relations with them as well as undermine the opposition as they would just be portrayed as tools of the Great Satan.

Edit: Zoolander, I agree with this, and ultimately I think this will be seen by history as the moment or one of the precursors to the moment that the collapse of the Islamic Republic government becomes inevitable/obvious to everyone much like how the Shah's fall became all but obvious ~1 year before the gov't actually fell apart.

[Kuya]

One would hope that if the current government does one day fall, that it isn't replaced with some puppet government. It is far too much to hope for that the Americans keep their shady hands away from Iran.

[Khamsin]

Um what? It's the same regime that was in power before the election

I mean, compared to that of those in power immediately prior to the coup d'état (or else it wouldn't be a coup d'état).

One group had power and had certain political stances and agenda, then another manages to overcome them and gain power, with a different political stance and agenda.

[Kuya]

What coup d'etat?

[Khamsin]

The titular one, unless it was false alarm. Did it not happen, afterall?

[Kuya]

No. There was no coup d'etat.

[Khamsin]

I guess more specifically, it would be the seizing of power from the elected government of Iran by the regime that formerly was in power, but lost it at the election to the candidates who both somehow won but couldn't decide how to handle things.

It seems as if the regime has managed to gather enough support to overthrow the democratic process and take all the power from the would-be-elected-presidents-if-shit-hadn't-gone-down, and revert things to the way they were.