2018 Midterms: Gerrymandering to Victory b/w Blue Wave, Red Pill

[6souls]

North Carolina Reduces Earl Voting Locations by 20%, Republicans say it's to Reduce Voting Confusion
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/17/65792...an-controversy

[kuronosan]

Kevin Yoder margin with Sharice is pretty close. My faith in Western Kansas isn't really all that high tbh

[Salodin]

Getting my prediction in now.

Dems +1 in the Senate.
Dems +29 in the House.

Idk about the country at large, but in florida:

Gillum wins handily (at least +7) and Florida turns blue. Nelson holds his seat. Dems pick up under 5 seats in state legislature.

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[archibaldcrane]

538 Governor model is out.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

6 states have very competitive races (where the underdog has better than 30% to win) - FL, GA, WI, OH, NV and KS.

[Tyche]

538 Governor model is out.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

6 states have very competitive races (where the underdog has better than 30% to win) - FL, GA, WI, OH, NV and KS.

All 6 currently have republican governors.

[kuronosan]

The only problem here in Kansas is Greg Orman possibly spoiling the race by "not being a Democrat".

[Cail]

CT is too damn close. Not thrilled with Lamont but fuck Stefanowski

[Fiye]

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/105...768730624?s=19

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[Fiye]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/...676813826?s=19

This rules pretty hard.

[Salodin]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/105...768730624?s=19

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So the big black man was the one actually abused? And the other woman, his accuser, has a video of abuse but doesnt want to release it? Fuck man how much more doubt can you have lol.

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[Andalusian girls]

neither accusation of abuse was leveled by his ex-wife, and using her opinion on the matter as exoneration is like pointing to Ashley Kavanaugh frowning to discredit Christine Blasey Ford.

it's unfortunate this woman's personal affairs were publicly revealed when she did not want them to be, but i'm of the opinion we need know more, not less, of our politicians and such is the price of Keith's ambitions.

[Salodin]

No it's not. It's like pointing to his accuser, who says she has evidence of his abuse, and doubting her because she refuses to release said evidence. Then when another abuse in this mans life comes up, it turns out he was the one abused.

I dont know what point you're trying to make, but the point I'm making is I see no history or reason to give Ellisom the Franklin or Kavanaugh treatment like many people would like to.

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[6souls]

So the big black man was the one actually abused? And the other woman, his accuser, has a video of abuse but doesnt want to release it? Fuck man how much more doubt can you have lol.

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His accuser is not his ex-wife.

[6souls]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/1...abused-ex-wife

The divorce documents have been unsealed and neither Alpha News nor the Tribune found the juicy details they were looking for. Instead, it's been revealed that Ellison was a victim of physical domestic abuse by his ex-wife.

.

[Salodin]

His accuser is not his ex-wife.

I know, that's why I said the other woman, his accuser. Theres also a 2nd accuser iirc, but idk if they ever went anywhere.

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[6souls]

Nothing happened with the 2nd accuser. There was a blip when it was announced, but both left & right publications dropped it.

[Andalusian girls]

No it's not. It's like pointing to his accuser, who says she has evidence of his abuse, and doubting her because she refuses to release said evidence. Then when another abuse in this mans life comes up, it turns out he was the one abused.

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the fact that he did not abuse his ex-wife does nothing to either damn or exonerate Ellison. feel free to discredit both his prior accusers if you find their stories unbelievable (though it doesn't sound like you are particularly interested in the truth as you barely even remember the second accuser), but acting as though this moves the needle in some way when it is entirely irrelevant is illogical.

and i don't know what you're talking about when you claim he was the one abused.

[Yuri-G]

it doesn't move the needle on the abuse accusations tho, it moves the needle on Ellison as a whole, precisely because the people who were fighting to release his divorce records got nothing out of it and now look like the bad guys while making him more sympathetic in exchange.

[Salodin]

Ellison was the victim of abuse himself, even though people wanted to see his divorce papers presumably because they thought they'd see evidence of his abusive nature in them. They found the exact opposite.

One case of not being abusive does not exonerate him from another accusal, but it does add to the context that Ellison does not appear to be abusive or overly aggressive with his partners. That absolutely lends to his character. Just like Kavanaugh drinking a lot when he was a kid and losing control doesnt mean he raped Fords, but it speaks to his character.

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