What caused the Great Christmas Inflation

[Absolutely Virtue]

Forgive me if everyone knows this and I don't. I tried to search on "Inflation" but found a million threads with people QQing about current deflation.

I'm looking for discussion/theory/proof about why we had such bad inflation last Christmas (wasn't it last Christmas?). The other current thread about how to make money in this economy contains several posts that simply blame IGE for everything. I don't buy that at all. I can't see how RMT sites could be responsible, because even as prices crashed the RMT sites were all still up and running (judging by the onslaught of ads).

I've heard that IGE complaint for years. Anyone know of any threads where alternative causes were discussed? Anyone have any other theories? This is something I've always wondered about. And again, I'm very sorry if this is common knowledge I've somehow never known.

[Joeyp]

if i remember correctly they were selling gil 5$ per mil and there was so much going around that i was selling fire crystals for almost 20k a stack. that was a long time ago like in 05-06 though.

[Not Kuno]

Everyone RMTed their balls off, causing the price of everything in game to skyrocket beyond belief.

[Absolutely Virtue]

But I'm not sure I buy that. The inflation seemed to hit every server, right? That would mean that everyone, on every server, was RMT'ing their balls off. That seems like a huge coincidence.

And I do remember the price for gil was very low (wish I had a chart showing historic prices, would be cool). You could say that's because RMT had a ton of gil and undercut the price. Or you could look at it like RMT could also take advantage of things like 20k/stacks of crystals and were able to generate more cash per hour, meaning they could offer to sell for less.

I personally think someone (players or RMT, or both) duped a shitload of gil and dumped it into the economy. That's a recipe for hyperinflation in real economies, seems plausible in FFXI, too.

[Cream Soda]

Inflation was caused by $6/mil specials by RMT

[Syntex]

But I'm not sure I buy that. The inflation seemed to hit every server, right? That would mean that everyone, on every server, was RMT'ing their balls off. That seems like a huge coincidence.

And I do remember the price for gil was very low (wish I had a chart showing historic prices, would be cool). You could say that's because RMT had a ton of gil and undercut the price. Or you could look at it like RMT could also take advantage of things like 20k/stacks of crystals and were able to generate more cash per hour, meaning they could offer to sell for less.

I personally think someone (players or RMT, or both) duped a shitload of gil and dumped it into the economy. That's a recipe for hyperinflation in real economies, seems plausible in FFXI, too.

It was a combination of a somewhat inflated economy compared to now and the low price of 5 bucks for a mil, when someone who wants that SH cant afford to farm all day and gets 100 dollars from family members why not spend 50 of it on some gil? 10 mil couldn't hurt? That as it was when RMT were in full force in sky, HNM camps and even claiming/killing kings and selling drops.

That was a awesome time to be active, I got up to 30mil from 2/5 under obs PCC on my orb selling PCC for 18mil 2x but if I would have known prices would have fell like a rock I would have leveled woodworking a little later then paying 100k a pop for lancewood logs ect.

That pretty much sums it up, too bad it didn't happen this year I was hoping

[Nymphadora]

It was actually a couple Christmases ago from what I understand. I started playing almost two years ago around the end of it, I think..? Prices had already leveled out a good bit by that time. Far as I'm aware, it was all rmt. Basically, not nearly as much was in place to prevent or stop rmt, they went crazy farming gil all over the place and selling it, all that extra gil flooding the economy through gill buyers drove the prices up, more people bought gil just to afford a decent living in game, prices rose sky high. That's what I've picked up anyways...so I can see how it could be blamed on rmt. Just glad I didn't have to go through it.

[Cream Soda]

You're about right on the time frame. I started in october of 06'. Came right into the inflation and my RL friend was buyin gil and fuckin outclassin me. It was like I struggle to get a SH, and he buys a SH+1 and doesn't even have a job that can equip it, but now 3 years later, I got all the rare/ex shit and he still has his AH stuff. I'm lovin it.

[Absolutely Virtue]

I guess the question I'm trying to find an answer to is:

Why were RMT able to charge $5/mil then, but signficantly more now?

I appreciate that over the last few months or so, based on what they're reporting in the STFU reports, they're doing a much better job with banning. And from a purely anecdotal perspective, they do seem to be making progress.

But we have 5+ years of data (I started playing at NA launch) now, and that brief, few-months spike was unlike anything we ever saw. RMT existed before then, and it existed afterwards. Why did prices escalate so much at that specific point? Remember the fishbots for rusty caps craze? That FLOODED the economy with gil generated by NPCing items, and it didn't have nearly the impact on overall prices. See what I'm getting at? The RMT must have discovered something enormous to be able to generate that much cash. I'm wondering what it was.

[Lexa]

Back then the RMT were also much more in abundance at higher-profit areas of the game. There were RMTs constantly camped at every major and minor NM that dropped anything of remote importance, much of which has become R/Ex now. Valkurm Emperor and Leaping Lizzy, Castle O NMs, KA, Roc, Simurgh, etc etc etc etc etc.

Couple that steady source of income in decently huge chunks with the much smaller possibility of getting banned than nowadays, and I can imagine the gil supply was flowing pretty easily. They charge more now, because it's harder to come by. They didn't discover something enormous, SE just took away a lot of the methods they were using at the time.

[Flarega]

Well, for one, the STF did not exist during this inflation period. There were no monthly bannings of players violating the terms of service. RMT "hunters" as they like to call them could basically do anything and not get punished. In comparison to now, very little was being done to combat RMT. Now it feels like every patch SE will slip something new into the update notes that make it difficult for RMT to use their current favorite method. For example, this previous patch they added the level 20 fishing requirement.

RMT were making way more gil then than they are now. And their gil income must have severely outweighed their demand for it from the actual players. This caused them to have huge stockpiles of gil on RMT mules. So they lowered their prices significantly during that holiday season and we got the extreme inflation we still talk about today. Weskits at 10mil, HQ staves at about the same, serket rings at 20m, etc.

[Metah]

Wow, I think I've read this topic before, word for word

[Syntex]

Weskits at 10mil

What pissed me off the most was this.

Before the inflation the NQ of this item was 30 fucking K, I could have bought 100 of them, sold them for 10mil each and got 2 relics :/

[Tubbers]

There was supposedly a gil duping glitch. I believe that by trading max gil to the some NPC (the Power Sandals NPC?), you could glitch it into giving you max gil as a reward, and keep trading to him, and he would give you max gil two or three times. Gil dropped to like $3/Mil or so at the worst point, they were trying to get it out as fast as possible before getting banned.

[Vodou]

There was supposedly a gil duping glitch. I believe that by trading max gil to the some NPC (the Power Sandals NPC?), you could glitch it into giving you max gil as a reward, and keep trading to him, and he would give you max gil two or three times. Gil dropped to like $3/Mil or so at the worst point, they were trying to get it out as fast as possible before getting banned.

This.

Or something like this.

Inflation is not caused by people buying and selling gil to each other even if an RMT and gil seller are part of the transaction.

Its caused by MORE gil than there was before. In this case a LOT more. SE removed like 300 billion gil in 1 month. (See playoneline Feb 2006 archives).

[Sephiroth_Owa 13]

Yea I remember hearing about gil dup when the prices were so high, I started in 04 when things were slowly starting to high, at lvl 50 started looking into getting a Hauby at 1mil then like over night it went to 5mil then 8mil and highest was 10mil I think on Pandy, also I think someone off my LS was saying RMT were selling 5mil for $10 and he was gonna buy $200 worth of it and when he got the gil was gonna say he never charge it and get free gil lol but didn't work.
But was the NPC cherry muffin prices around the time, that could have added to the gil as well as well the remedies? But I'm sure there was a gil dup bug that helped add to the problem. Remember also they removed like....what? 85 billion worth of gil? And sorry if I'm wrong on that number but I know it was LARGE amount of gil.

[Ashira]

Cherry muffins weren't in the game then.

[Jingseng]

as many have pointed out, more gil from a LOT more RMT. STF started after that, pretty much (this was about 3 christmas' ago iirc).

There were, additionally, a lot more players... and a lot less content (in game). Meaning it was easier for endgame LSes to completely dominate some things, allowing them to keep prices high; additionally certain craft items and gear weren't available from multiple sources as they are now. It also meant that gear that allowed one to play at a 'high level' was perceived to be worth more.

So you had a bunch of players, all trying to be not mediocre (or so they thought anyway), and in some cases having no real means to obtain certain gear (and in other cases, no real discipline to camp gear...)... and RMT rolling in cash, as they too not only had gil to supply, but controlled certain expensive items on the AH (so essentially you bought gil from them, then gave it right back when you bought something off the ah... which reduced the amount of gil farming they needed to do).

Then christmas rolls around, and parents who have no real parenting skills or connections to their kids figure a good present is this 'gil' thing that their kids 'need' to play their game. It's easier than a gift card and can be done online. And it's under $20.

Kablooie.

[Mansin]

This was before they had changed anything regarding gil.
Virtually every NM in Sea Serpent Grotto dropped Siren's Hair, Mantas in Cape Terrigan dropped Angel Skin, and GMs didn't ban RMT like the STF does. There were bannings here and there, but there was a team of gil sellers at literally every zone of the game doing every activity they could to make money.

When they were banned, there were trains of RMT leveling in every zone to replace them. I think it was a mix of SE not being able to keep up, and trying to implement a good system to fix it, similar to what's happening with the account hackings.

[CelinaAlexander]

Rusty Cap fishing caused it.

You could fish up a Rusty Cap, synth it into a Padded Cap with a Light Crystal, and NPC it for like 10k. Fishing in Rabao could net you easily 200k an hour, and this was before fishing fatigue or bot bannings.