Okay.
Last week:
M/L: 10-4
ATS: 6-6-2
Overall:
M/L: 77-42
ATS: 59-55-5
BYE WEEK: Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, Seattle
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5TH
8:25pm EST, NFL Network
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-11) - See above. Bengals win, Browns with the points.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8TH
1:00pm EST, CBS
Tennessee at New Orleans (-8) - Last week I said I wasn't "buying" the Saints, so of course they throw up a 50-burger on the G-Men. They've won 4 of their last 5 and seem like a different team than the one who blew up Eliminator in week 2. I was going to do a "REMEMBER THE FALLEN" for Ken Whisenhunt, but a. I don't even think we have any Titans fans here, and b. no one cares anyway. Saints win and cover.
Miami at Buffalo (-3) - Believe it or not, but the winner of this game could be tied for a wild card spot in the AFC. Coming off a bye and getting healthy, Buffalo should be in top form. Even though the Fish are 2-1 under Dan Campbell, I don't really know what to expect from this team. Guess I'll just keep waiting. Bills win and cover.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-7) - FITZMAGIC is playing hurt. Always watch his eyes.
Jacksonville is much better than their 2-5 record would indicate in my opinion, but for Gus Bradley to keep his job, that defense needs to improve in a hurry as they are 31st in the league in points against per game. Jets win, Jaguars with the points.
Oakland at Pittsburgh (-4.5) - After getting blown out by Cincy in week 1, Oakland is 4-2 and just dominated the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Jets. They're 8th in points per game and Derek Carr is sporting some really nice numbers like 15-to-3 TD-INT ratio, 105.7 passer rating, and he's only been sacked eight times. Pittsburgh got Large Ben back but will now be without Le'Veon Bell for the rest of the season. RIP in peace, bud. DeAngelo Williams looked good during Bell's suspension, so they should be okay offensively. Over-48 looks really tasty considering these two quarterbacks and the lack of defenses on display. Heinz is a tough place to play so I'll go with the Steelers to win, Raiders with the points.
1:00pm EST, FOX
Green Bay at Carolina (+2.5) - The Pack just got donkey punched by DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. Carolina almost blew a 23-6 4th quarter lead against Andrew Suck. For the premier game of the week, this kinda sucks. Josh Norman is playing about as good at corner as I've ever seen, so it could be a long night for Cobb. Still, no way AR12 and the Green Bay offense puts up two stinkburgers in a row. Packers win and cover.
Washington at New England (-14) -
Patriots win and cover.
St. Louis at Minnesota (-2.5) - St. Louis is a weird team. They have some of the best talent in the league on both sides of the ball, but I always feel like the end result is less than the sum of its parts. Then again if Todd Gurley is 100% on week 1 they could have six or seven wins so who knows. The Vikes have played well but have a murderer's row starting in a few weeks: GB, @ATL, SEA, @ARI. That four-game stretch, along with week 17 at Lambeau, will be the difference for them. They'll need a more dynamic offense to survive and advance to the playoffs. Rams in the upset.
4:05pm EST, FOX
NY Giants at Tampa Bay (+2.5) -
Buccaneers in the upset.
Atlanta at San Francisco (+7) - The San Francisco 49ers are voluntarily starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. For a visual representation of the Gabbert years in Jacksonville, we go to Jaguars superfan, WTF Guy:
Falcons win and cover.
4:25pm EST, CBS
Denver at Indianapolis (+5) - Andrew Luck has always been an overrated, but still good, quarterback. His passer rating grew every year, topping out at 96.5 last season, and he put up big counting stats making him a desirable fantasy commodity. So the abortion of a season Luck is currently having could be explained by several things I won't get into here. Always turnover-prone, he's throwing a pick on 4.67% of his passes, which would be the 14th worst ratio since 2000 if it holds up. (The worst qualified season was Jake Delhomme's 2009 for the 8-8 Carolina Panthers, he threw a pick on 5.61% of all pass attempts. 2009 also features #3 and #5 on the list, owned by Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford.) That's a lot of words to say that a bunch of quarterbacks are garbage. Broncos win and cover.
8:30pm EST, NBC
Philadelphia at Dallas (+2.5) - Someone make a Matt Cassel megathread please. I'll sticky it. Eagles win and cover.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9TH
8:30pm EST, ESPN
Chicago at San Diego (-4) - I won't watch this garbage game, but I'll check Twitter the next day for the gifs.
Mmmmm, yes, that's the stuff. Chargers win and cover.
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