THE FUCKING BEST COACH SWAG EVER
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Last week
M/L: 11-5
ATS: 7-9
Overall
M/L: 119-72-1
ATS: 90-95-7
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5TH
8:25pm EST, NFL Network
Houston at Jacksonville (+3) - The team with ten straight losses versus the team with the sixth-worst DVOA through 12 games ever. This should be a ratings bonanza, NFL Network. Credit Jacksonville's defense for turning Cleland over three times and getting a safety last week as they snagged their third win in four weeks (!) and giving the Texans the inside route to the first pick. Houston only put up 6 points on the Jags two weeks ago, so I think they'll be focused on executing their offense more efficiently. And JJ Watt is still awesome. I'll take the Texans to win and cover.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 8TH
1:00pm EST, CBS
Cleveland at New England (-11.5) - Fun fact: My Vegas odds website still lists "CLE-QB-Brian Hoyer-OUT" as if that matters. He's Brian Hoyer. It seems like a lifetime ago that Cleland was 3-2 and chasing a playoff dream. Now, they've signed Caleb Hanie, one week after signing Alex Tanney of Monmouth University and Dallas practice squad fame, to the QB depth chart. At least the writing is on the wall that WEEDEN is done. Meanwhile, Dexter Brady has Gronk and Vereen back for the passing game, so things are looking pretty good. They need to tighten up against the run, but
Patriots win and cover.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-6) - It's been a weird four weeks for the Colts, with bad losses to NFC West teams alternating with solid wins against the Titans. Unfortunately they only play Tennessee twice, but with a three-game lead in the AFC South, I think they can relax a bit. Andrew Luck has played really tight, and without Reggie Wayne to bail him out, the offense looks sluggish. Cincy also has a good lead in their division, but with games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore still on the horizon, there's still work to be done. The defense has done an excellent job working around GENO Atkins' absence, they're the AFC's top unit in my opinion. Now it's the offense's turn to work around an injury as left guard Clint Boling is done for the year. Next man up and all that. Bengals win and cover.
Oakland at NY Jets (-3) - Oakland has two young quarterbacks to evaluate with their final four games, a nice problem to have looking forward to 2014. With no need at QB and out from under the Carson Palmer trade, they can probably move down again and pick up valuable extra picks like they did in April with the Miami trade. The Jets, on the other hand, got their franchise quarterback in the draft, but Geno Smith may only survive as long as the current regime. Since 2011, Rex Ryan is 19-24 and 1-5 against New England and there are whispers about his job security. Even if Rex stays, Marty Mornhinweg needs to go. This is a game Ryan needs to have, and I think he gets the job done. Jets win and cover.
Miami at Pittsburgh (-3) - Early in the season I was on the Dolphins bandwagon (population: Tyche) and lost faith during an October slump. With the Martin / Incognito scandal, I was ready to stick a fork in them. But they're still unleashing their excellent defense and Tannehill is making enough plays to keep them in ballgames. I only root for Pittsburgh against Baltimore. The rest of the time, fuck 'em. When asked, Le'Veon Bell wants to play, but he thought they were talking about Tekken. Le'Veon Bell loved playing Tekken 3, or was it 2, at the arcade near his house. His favorite dude was Yoshimitsu. But Le'Veon Bell always lost to this kid who played... who was it? That guy with the red hair with all the kicks. Damn. Le'Veon Bell can't remember. Oh well, time to suit up I guess. The helmet will protect Le'Veon Bell. Also something something Mike Wallace homecoming blah blah you know the rest. Dolphins in the upset.
Buffalo at Tampa Bay (-2.5) - No one cares about anything involving the Bills except for SPILLER being good to go for your fantasy playoffs. Tampa got swallowed up by the Carolina defense last week, which is why Vegas is giving them a mulligan and they're actually favored here. Anyway, this should be a snooze fest. SCHIANO MEN to win and cover.
Kansas City at Washington (+3.5) - Welp, KC got swept by Denver, to the surprise of no one, but they've pretty much locked up a wild card and can look forward to beating Indy or Cincinnati in the playoffs. The Indigenous Peoples will be their punching bag this week, as Andy Reid returns to the SnyderDome to chow down on Ben's Chili Bowl exact revenge. The Redskins are just a mess. When one of your veteran leaders kicks the football for a penalty and the coach jokes about it later, that's just terrible. There's no accountability, but that's the culture when the coach's son runs the offense. No one is in jeopardy, no one pays for poor performances. Just business as usual in DC. Washington also loses the battle of culturally sensistive mascots. Chiefs win and cover.
1:00pm EST, FOX
Atlanta at Green Bay (-7) - After last week's win in Buffalo, Matt Ryan is now changing his jersey number to 3. Also, the Falcons will score one field goal in their next playoff game. Aaron Rodgers is still iffy for this game, and honestly there's no point in rushing him back here. They can still make the playoffs, sure, but if they can't beat Atlanta without him, they've got bigger problems to worry about. Packers win, Falcons with the points.
Detroit at Philadelphia (-2.5) - Here are two teams I pretty much dismissed a month ago that have found new life. Detroit got their Thanksgiving feast on by pummeling Matt Flynn. Philly has four wins in a row and if you didn't know it was FOLESERIN' TIME before, you do now. This should be an evenly matched game, and I like the odds of Philly getting after Stafford a little more than Detroit slowing down Foles. Eagles win and cover.
Minnesota at Baltimore (-7) -
PURPLE ON PURPLE CRIME. Ravens win, Vikings with the points.
4:05pm EST, CBS
Tennessee at Denver (-12) -
Also, Sunday forecast in Denver; high of 15º and 30% chance of snow. Broncos win, Titans with the points.
4:25pm EST, FOX
St. Louis at Arizona (-6) - After convincing wins over Indy and Chicago, the Rams got shut down by a superior defensive team last week in San Fran. Still, they've performed rather well with a caretaker quarterback, and I do love their backs and receivers. Whether they stick with Bradford or go in another non-Kellen Clemens direction, they're a team to watch in 2014. Arizona had won four straight until slipping up in Philly, but they are still stingy on defense and are only a game back of San Fran's wild card spot. I like them to keep the pressure on with a win here. Cardinals win, Rams with the points.
NY Giants at San Diego (-3) -
vs.
Chargers win and cover.
Seattle at San Francisco (-3) -
Broven best. Seahawks in the upset.
8:30pm EST, NBC
Carolina at New Orleans (-3.5) - Despite the Saints having the better record, Carolina actually has a better point differential (+128 to +82) and DVOA (total or weighted). They're the better football team, and as long as that defense is still bruising people and Cam is commanding the offense, they have a chance to beat anybody. And we all saw what Seattle was able to do to the Saints offense Monday night. They play each other in Charlotte again in two weeks, and these games are for a first-round bye, so the stakes are pretty big. They both have had pretty soft schedules, but I like Carolina's wins more than N'awlins. Fuck it, Panthers in the upset.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 9TH
8:30pm EST, ESPN
Dallas at Chicago (-1) - Just like Detroit, Dallas enjoyed a little home cookin' on Thanksgiving. Still tied with Philly, I think they're playing their best football of the year (which isn't saying much) at the right time. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into wins against the Giants and Raiders. With the close games Chicago has played since the Downfall of Cutler, it's easy to see how they could be 8-4 right now. They're still in the mix for the division, and with the best receiving tandem in football they can get to the playoffs if their defense would just play a little better. They have good takeaway numbers and are decent against the pass, but 153.6 yards of rushing allowed per game is just terrible. Knowing how smart Dallas's coaching staff is, they'll probably try to throw it 60 times, even with a Thursday-to-Monday to prepare. We'll all be watching, but really just for the MEGATON / GMARSH / DEZ show. Cowboys in the upset.
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